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Thanks for reading the Ottawa Playbook. Today, we delve into a key electoral battleground in Alberta where RACHEL NOTLEY‘s New Democrats hope to reprise a 2015 upset. Plus, who’s who in the race for the next Liberal presidency? Also, public servants are in a position to strike.

BATTLEGROUND CALGARY — A six-vote margin propelled ANAM KAZIM to victory in Alberta’s 2015 election. The razor-thin win might’ve seemed like a relative landslide; the rookie NDP MLA for Calgary-Glenmore had been tied with her PC opponent after the unofficial count on election night.

JASON KENNEY‘s United Conservatives demolished the New Democrats in the suburban seat in southwest Calgary four years later. Now, that riding could make all the difference.

— This is where the win is: POLITICO contributor PHILIPPE J. FOURNIER set out the provincial state of play in a Wednesday column. DANIELLE SMITH is still the favorite in a tight provincial race, he wrote, but Calgary will make all the difference.

Every single political analyst knows it.

CBC published on Tuesday a talker of a survey from respected pollster JANET BROWN that zeroed in on Calgary. Brown projects the NDP winning in as many as 18 ridings in the city, including four in the more affluent southwestern quadrant.

Fournier maintains a snake chart that pinpoints the riding projected to put the winning party over the top. It’s a volatile visualization as the winds shift in Alberta’s biggest city, but Calgary-Glenmore is one of the closest races.

If the NDP wins there, RACHEL NOTLEY will likely retake the premier’s office. If the party comes up short, the UCP led by Smith will probably be re-elected.

— Recent history: Kazim’s 2015 triumph benefited from a divided right. She came up the middle as the Progressive Conservative and Wildrose vote cannibalized. A united right coalesced around WHITNEY ISSIK, now the environment minister. An NDP win next month would mean thousands of UCP voters flipped or stayed home.

— On the ground: Playbook got on the horn with ESMAHAN RAZAVI, the campaign manager for NDP candidate NAGWAN AL-GUNEID in Calgary-Glenmore.

The campaign’s door-knockers are hearing about issues like health care, said Razavi. But she also described the election as a referendum on Smith.

Is al-Guneid aiming to win back 2015 voters who might’ve sided with Kenney in 2019? Yes, Razavi said. “We’re also finding people who didn’t even vote for us in 2015, who are voting for us now. Which I think is even more interesting.”

The best ground game will win, said Razavi. She thinks she’s seeing an enthusiasm gap — more motivated supporters than the UCP is attracting. That is, of course, anecdotal.

— A second opinion: IAN BRODIE knows something about winning elections. The University of Calgary professor and former chief of staff to STEPHEN HARPER has watched politics for decades from his perch in the city.

If it’s close in the southwest quadrant of the city, Brodie wrote to us, that’s in part due to Notley’s rehabilitation after a bruising four years in power.

“Rachel Notley has repaired her public image and is reassuring voters she won’t hike taxes and provoke the devastating job losses these ridings suffered after she won in 2015,” writes Brodie. “She has better known candidates this time, and she has courted thousands of public sector workers in southwest Calgary who have a beef with UCP’s effort to rein in Alberta’s government salaries.”

— Turnout matters: Brodie echoed Razavi’s emphasis on getting out the vote. “The NDP’s 2015 victory was helped by extraordinarily low voter turnout in southwest Calgary,” he said. “If the UCP can polarize its voters against the prospect of another NDP government, enough may turn out to the polls to stave off defeat.”

What are you seeing in Alberta? Drop us a line here.

PLAY BALL — Deputy PM CHRYSTIA FREELAND will deliver a Northeastern University commencement address in Boston on May 7. The venue: Fenway Park. The Blue Jays are in town three days earlier. Brace for cross-border baseball jokes. (Go Jays.)

STRIKE VOTE — The Public Service Alliance of Canada raised the stakes for its 120,000 members Wednesday morning with the announcement of a strike mandate.

The union’s members voted in “overwhelming” numbers for a potential strike that national president CHRIS AYLWARD told reporters could impact frontline services like immigration and employment insurance applications, and even grain exports. Aylward warned of potential delays at airports, too, if negotiations fall apart and workers hit the picket line.

— Mystery number: CityNews quoted PSAC as receiving 90 percent support for a strike mandate. But the union said that figure was “not accurate and we didn’t give it to them.”

“It’s PSAC policy to not announce exact numbers for strategic reasons,” said spokesperson JEFFREY VALLIS. “So all we’re saying at this point is we have a strong strike mandate.”

The union also gave the same reason for refusing to release voter turnout data.

RACE FOR PREZ — Liberals will leave their national convention in Ottawa on May 6 with a new party president. The top two contenders have been criss-crossing the country, piling up endorsements. Elected people have taken sides. Members get the final say.

The candidates are SACHIT MEHRA, a longtime party activist in Manitoba who chairs the Federal Liberal Agency of Canada, which administers the party’s financial transactions; and MIRA AHMAD, a current party VP and former national president of the Young Liberals (and sister to Trudeau director of communications CAMERON AHMAD).

— The stakes: Why does the presidency matter? Playbook asked SABRINA GROVER, a former Calgary candidate who supports Ahmad, for her take.

“It’s super important to mobilizing volunteers, organizing Electoral District Associations and setting a tone for the kind of engagement we want from Liberals across the country — if done well,” she said. “It’s really to me more inward-facing, and a good president is someone that can really hype up the grassroots.”

— Endorsement watch: Mehra may be the favorite. He named Foreign Minister MÉLANIE JOLY and Labor Minister SEAMUS O’REGAN as campaign co-chairs for the home stretch. Mehra’s endorsers include 35 MPs and 11 Cabinet ministers. He has MONA FORTIER, JONATHAN WILKINSON and FRANÇOIS-PHILIPPE CHAMPAGNE on his side.

Greater Toronto Area fixer NAVDEEP BAINS, a former Cabmin who still commands power and influence, is also a Mehra man.

Ahmad has only one minister on her side, though he’s no slouch: DOMINIC LEBLANC. She scooped up 15 members of the caucus, and has won over former Nova Scotia premier IAIN RANKIN. Playbook also spotted SHEILA GERVAIS, a former national director of the party who maintains a perfect Playbook trivia attendance record.

— It’s not in the bag: The power of big-name endorsements is hard to measure in this kind of race. What matters most is meeting party members who will cast ballots at the convention. Time to get out the vote.

— Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU is in Regina.

— Deputy PM CHRYSTIA FREELAND is in Washington for the Spring Meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.

9 a.m. Bank of Canada Governor TIFF MACKLEM will speak at the IMF Spring Meetings. Catch it here.

9:30 a.m. Freeland will attend the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting.

12:30 p.m. Freeland will host a working lunch with Caribbean partners.

1 p.m. (11 a.m. CT) NDP leader JAGMEET SINGH visits the University of Saskatchewan College of Dentistry.

1:15 p.m. (11:15 a.m. CT) Trudeau will visit a grocery store.

1:40 p.m. (11:40 a.m. CT) Trudeau will make an announcement.

2:45 p.m. (12:45 p.m. CT) Singh speaks to reporters about dentalcare.

3 p.m. Freeland will chair the Five Finance Ministers Meeting.

5 p.m. (3 p.m. CT) Trudeau will participate in a town hall with students and community members.

5 p.m. (3 p.m. CT) Singh meets with Saskatoon Mayor CHARLIE CLARK.

7:30 p.m. (5:30 p.m. MT) Tory leader PIERRE POILIEVRE is in Edmonton for a fundraiser at the Royal Glenora Club.

9 p.m. (7 p.m. CT) Singh hosts a meet and greet.

AFTER BIDEN — Another president is making her first visit to Canada since taking on the role: SUZANNE P. CLARK, the head of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.

Clark is in Ottawa next week. She’ll headline a breakfast at the Westin on April 19 organized by the American Chamber of Commerce in Canada (AmCham), in partnership with the Business Council of Canada and the Canadian Chamber of Commerce.

Playbook asked AmCham president RICK TACHUK about the state of the cross-border relationship in the wake of JOE BIDEN‘s 26-hour visit last month. This email conversation has been edited for length and clarity.

What was the greatest missed opportunity during the visit?

There was no stone uncovered. Inevitably we would like to see movement on all of the well-documented irritants.

However, it is inevitable that all matters can’t be resolved in a short visit, especially ones with highly political roots. This visit laid the groundwork for an ambitious go-forward bilateral agenda and enhanced collaboration.

What do you make of proposals to comprehensively reimagine “Buy America” policy as “Buy North America”?

Buy North America would be an important response to what we all witnessed during the pandemic — a serious need to re-shore manufacturing and production of key products and materials. However, Buy America(n) policy has bipartisan roots in the United States and deep political history. To reach the ideal goal of Buy North American, we have to undertake the political work to change the narrative at a grassroots political level.

Members of Congress need to believe their voters won’t be angry if a Canadian product is used in a U.S. infrastructure project. We need to work together as trusted partners, creating jobs and increased value with a focus on the reliability of our mutually beneficial supply chains, and largely shared values on labor and the environment.

We recently saw the Eurasia Group/BMO summit on Canada-U.S. issues that emphasized frank discussion between stakeholders and policymakers. How effective are cross-border discussions outside of formal visits? Are existing structures effective?

This is the exact reason AmCham Canada (and organizations like ours) exists. It is the conversations that happen in between high-level visits, it is the business undertaken across the border every day, it is the people-to-people connections that are the real strength of the Canada-U.S. relationship.

The high-level visits are really the culmination of all of that work that happens regardless of who is in power, whether we agree or disagree on a certain issue or whether it’s a Canadian or U.S. team that wins the Stanley Cup.

— From ERIN BANCO in Washington: Why the U.S. didn’t notice leaked documents circulating on social media.

— “The strike watch begins,” KATHRYN MAY writes in IRPP’s Functionary newsletter — required reading on the public service.

— In a wide-ranging interview, veteran journalist FRANCINE COMPTON tells APTN’s Face to Face, “the most under-reported issue right now is the states of emergencies on First Nations.”

— MOSTAFA ASKARI, chief economist at the Institute of Fiscal Studies and Democracy, is on the Hot Room pod to talk about the 2023 budget.

— Introducing POLITICO’s Mayors Club: 50 U.S. mayors take us inside their biggest challenges.

Birthdays: HBD to Liberal MPs PETER SCHIEFKE and WAYNE LONG. Also celebrating: Former MP KEITH MARTIN and retired Alberta MLA BRIDGET PASTOOR.

Do you have a birthday coming up? Does a colleague? Send us the dates and we’ll tell the world.

Spotted: Fisheries and Oceans Minister JOYCE MURRAY in Reykjavik.

Elections Canada filings for a pair of Liberal fundraisers in March. JONATHAN WILKINSON drew 19 donors to a Laurier Club reception in Saskatoon. PABLO RODRIGUEZ and RANDY BOISSONNAULT teamed up to bring 17 donors out to brunch in Edmonton.

Movers and shakers: TYLER MEREDITH, past head of economic and fiscal policy for the PM, has joined the board of the Royal Mental Health Centre … Former Cabinet minister TONY VALERI is lobbying for ArcelorMittal Dofasco … Ring of Fire Metals signed up a small team of in-house lobbyists … Ireland-based DP Energy is also in the registry, “exploring the regulatory pathway for offshore wind development in Nova Scotia.”

ALEX CATTRAN is GEDS official as an event planner in the Office of the Leader of the Official Opposition.

Media mentions: The McGill Tribune is now THE TRIBUNE.

If you’re a subscriber, don’t miss our latest policy newsletter by ZI-ANN LUM: Freeland warns against ‘race to the bottom.’

From ZACK COLMAN: Japan’s G-7 push for gas alarms climate change advocates.

In other Pro headlines:
— The nerd’s guide to Biden’s newest electric vehicle push.
— Ukraine claps back after counteroffensive intel leak.
— WTO chief says Appellate Body may not come back.
— EU trade chief calls for ‘green trans-Atlantic marketplace.’
— Fed economists project recession this year, in potential blow to Biden.

Parliament returns April 17.

→ Find the latest House committees here

→ Keep track of Senate committees here

9 a.m. The parliamentary budget officer will publish a new report titled “Budget 2023: Issues for parliamentarians.”

Wednesday’s answer: Champlain Oil Products

Props to BOB GORDON, LUCAS MALINOWSKI, GERMAINE MALABRE, GEORGE SCHOENHOFER and ROBERT MCDOUGALL.

Today’s question: Name the longest river in Canada.

Send your answer to [email protected]

Want to grab the attention of movers and shakers on Parliament Hill? Want your brand in front of a key audience of Ottawa influencers? Playbook can help. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: [email protected]

Playbook wouldn’t happen: Without Luiza Ch. Savage and Sue Allan.