The Biden ask that may be too much for Europe
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HIROSHIMA, Japan — When President JOE BIDEN arrives here for the G-7 summit, he and other leaders will be focused as much — and maybe even more — on economic competition with China as they are with Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine.
Formed to foster cooperation among the world’s biggest economies, the G-7 has demonstrated its versatility as a geopolitical force and a new degree of unity in its response to the war. But now, with a sanctions regime in place, advanced weapons flowing to Ukraine and the fighting at something of a stalemate, there is less demand for the immediate attention of these leaders. And Japan, this year’s host, is eager to focus on economic competition and security in the Pacific, as well as — given the chosen location of Hiroshima — the necessity of preventing a new nuclear arms race.
But that doesn’t mean Ukraine will be off the table. The U.S. has put forth one policy proposal related to the war — one that could test the unanimity within the G-7. It involves trade.
The G-7 imposed the largest sanctions and export controls regime ever enforced against a major economy after Russia invaded Ukraine last year. It dropped exports to Russia by $5.7 billion a month on average, or 57 percent overall. The U.S. has suggested imposing a total ban on G-7 exports to Russia.
The problem with that is that almost all of the remaining $4.7 billion in monthly G-7 exports to Russia is coming from Europe (89 percent) and Japan (7 percent), whose leaders have already suggested that a complete ban on remaining exports “may not be realistic.”
“The question is what compensation would go to European manufacturers and farmers and others,” said JOSH LIPSKY, senior director of the Atlantic Council’s GeoEconomics Center. “We’ll see how far they get. If it was easy, they would have done it already.”
Officials believe that further reducing exports to Russia would require closing some of the loopholes in the current sanctions regime. But the rest may be harder to achieve. Any U.S. proposal, for instance, would almost certainly exempt pharmaceuticals, the biggest category of the remaining exports.
“We are committed to holding Russia accountable, and in coordination with our G-7 partners have put in place the largest set of sanctions and export control actions ever imposed on a major economy,” a National Security Council spokesperson said. “These actions have had a significant impact, undercutting Russia’s ability to fund and fight its unjust war. You can expect us to make progress on taking steps to continue to hold Russia accountable.”
What additional sanctions and export controls all G-7 countries eventually agree to is still being worked out. But if you drill down on specifics, it’s hard to see what works.
Europe, which has already borne most of the economic brunt of limiting its trade relationship with Russia, is unlikely to agree to a sweeping export ban. With inflation still high and elected leaders facing a frustrated, increasingly anxious public, there is little appetite for denying, say, German chocolatiers or French perfume makers, vinegar distillers and auto manufacturers, the ability to sell and ship products to Russia — especially because so many of the items seem to have little bearing on the war itself.
“These are goods that are less linked to the conflict, so there may be less willingness for the EU to bear those costs,” said NIELS GRAHAM, who studies trade policy at the Atlantic Council and authored a new study of the G-7’s exports to Russia.
There is one technical fix that could make a difference. The G-7 countries may decide to invert the mechanics of the current sanction regime so that only non-sanctioned products are specifically mentioned and everything not referenced is presumed banned, according to two people familiar with the discussions. But even that idea is likely to face resistance.
“At this point in time, a total export ban is, for various reasons, not in the cards. Economically it’s just not feasible,” said RACHEL RIZZO, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Europe Center.
“As time goes on, citizens in various countries, especially within the European Union, are concerned about the overall cost of the war in Ukraine. So, if the answer to a total export ban is creating a bunch of carve outs so various European countries can get on board, is it really worth it? Does it have the intended effect? That’s unclear.”
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With help from the White House Historical Association
Which president created a White House orangery?
(Answer at bottom.)
EYES ON THE COMPROMISE: Before heading off to Japan, Biden expressed optimism over the latest round of debt ceiling talks. He also indicated that he’d be willing to compromise on the expansion of work requirements for government programs as part of a debt ceiling agreement, our ADAM CANCRYN and EUGENE DANIELS report.
In remarks, the president expressed confidence that “we’ll get the agreement on the budget, that America will not default.” Biden added he’s “not going to accept any work requirements that’s going to impact on medical health needs of people,” but noted “it’s possible” a deal could expand work rules for other federal programs. That drew quick backlash from some Democrats.
NOW OFF TO JAPAN: Although there were doubts Biden would make the G–7 Summit given the looming debt crisis in Washington, he did depart for Hiroshima, carrying the burden with him as he travels, writes Eli. The president still plans to cut his trip short and head back home after the G-7 to continue debt negotiations.
FEEL IT IN THE GLUTES: First lady JILL BIDEN and second gentleman DOUG EMHOFF started the day off by taking a HARRY STYLES vs. LIZZO SoulCycle class in Georgetown this morning. USA Today’s HANNAH YASHAROFF noted on Twitter that the class began with Lizzo’s “Like a Girl,” which opens with the line: “Woke up feeling like I just might run for president.”
WHAT THE WHITE HOUSE WANTS YOU TO READ: This story by The Messenger’s MARIANA LABBATE highlighting a recent Reuters/iPsos poll showing that 44 percent of those surveyed support Biden in the 2024 election compared to 38 percent for former President DONALD TRUMP. Former White House chief of staff RON KLAIN tweeted out the piece Wednesday morning, writing: “Im sure this Reuters/iPsos poll that has @JoeBiden ahead of Trump by SIX will get the same breathless coverage given to washpo/abc last week.”
WHAT THE WHITE HOUSE DOESN’T WANT YOU TO READ: This piece by HOLLY OTTERBEIN about how Democrats may be to blame for Biden’s low approval ratings. An analysis of 2022 midterm advertising by the progressive group, Way to Win, found that “Republicans spent $135 million on broadcast ads in House and Senate races — nearly one-third of their total costs on commercials — attacking Biden. At the same time, few Democrats aired ads promoting Biden’s legislative accomplishments.”
AND MAYBE THIS: EDWARD LUCE writes for the Financial Times about the need to calibrate the “languishing profile” of Vice President KAMALA HARRIS, saying Biden’s reelection campaign has “compelling reasons to thrust Harris to prominence as soon as possible. … Last time round, he was shielded by Covid and did it mostly on Zoom. Harris has to compensate in 2024’s more normal in-person environment by taking up some of Biden’s slack.”
POTUS ON THE LINE: West Wing Playbook has written about how Biden is a regular viewer of MSNBC’s “Morning Joe.” But he’s also reached out on occasion to one of the show’s hosts, JOE SCARBOROUGH, to share feedback about his coverage.
In an interview with DAVID AXELROD and MIKE MURPHY on the “Hacks on Tap” podcast, Scarborough said that Biden has woken him up at 8:30 at night (he goes to sleep early due to a 4:30 am wakeup time) calling to discuss commentary on the show or an op-ed Scarborough wrote.
“He will aggressively and very effectively give me point by point by point about how my op-ed was flawed,” Scarborough said. “I’ve had a lot of politicians, I know you guys have, too, that will call you up and bitch and moan and you just kind of roll your eyes — President Biden actually had great points.”
FIRST IN WEST WING PLAYBOOK: PRIYA SINGH is leaving her position at the White House as chief of staff of the Domestic Policy Council and a special assistant to the president, DANIEL LIPPMAN has learned.
DEPARTURE LOUNGE: COLIN KAHL, under secretary of defense for policy, will leave the Defense Department in July to return to his position as a tenured professor at Stanford University, our LARA SELIGMAN, CONNOR O’BRIEN and JOE GOULD report.
MEANWHILE, IN MASSACHUSETTS: U.S. Attorney for Massachusetts RACHAEL ROLLINS announced her resignation Tuesday, hours before a Justice Department watchdog released a report that found Rollins leaked sensitive information to a reporter to help a political ally, our LISA KASHINSKY, JOSH GERSTEIN and KYLE CHENEY report.
MANCHIN WALKS IT BACK: Sen. JOE MANCHIN (D-W.Va.) withdrew his support for JEFF MAROOTIAN, Biden’s nominee to serve as the Department of Energy’s assistant secretary for energy efficiency and renewable energy, citing concerns about the administration’s efficiency standards for stoves. The move comes after Manchin last week promised to oppose all DOE nominees to protest the administration’s proposed fossil fuel regulations, KELSEY TAMBORRINO reports for Pro subscribers.
BEHIND THE SCENES: The Biden administration’s proposed climate rule unveiled last week was actually “even stronger than what the Environmental Protection Agency had originally drafted … after White House officials pressed for a proposal that would take effect sooner and encompass a larger selection of power plants,” BENJAMIN STORROW and SCOTT WALDMAN report.
Recession Calls Keep Getting Pushed Back, Giving Soft Landing Believers Hope (Bloomberg’s Enda Curran and Reade Pickert)
Disappointment in Papua New Guinea after Biden cancels first visit by a US leader (The Guardian’s Rebecca Kuku)
Colin Kahl demonstrated an eclectic mix on his top albums of 2022 list. He included BEYONCE’s “Renaissance,” ROSALIA’s “Motomami,” and THE WEEKND’s “Dawn FM.”
Kahl’s top album of 2022 was SOCCER MOMMY’s “Sometimes, Forever.”
“I was in college in the 1990’s and the sound of the early 1990’s — that kind of garage band, grunge sound … Soccer Mommy is very much in that tradition,” he said on an episode of the “Early Bird Brief” podcast. “It just generated a lot of nostalgia for me.”
We think BAD BUNNY’s “Un Verano Sin Ti” should’ve topped the list… but we digress…
The White House orangery was created by President ANDREW JACKSON. This was an early greenhouse where tropical fruit trees and flowers could be grown. The orangery was later demolished in 1857 to make room for a new wing of the Treasury Department, according to the White House Historical Association.
A CALL OUT — Do you think you have a harder trivia question? Send us your best one about the presidents with a citation and we may feature it.
Edited by Eun Kyung Kim and Sam Stein.
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