- Share on WeChat
-
Bryan Steil (R) defeated Randy Bryce (D) and Ken Yorgan (I) in the 2018 general election for Wisconsin's 1st Congressional District.
On April 11, 2018, House Speaker and 1st District Rep. Paul Ryan (R) announced that he would not seek re-election, leaving the seat open for the first time in 20 years. Following Ryan's announcement, FiveThirtyEight's Nathaniel Rakich wrote that "the combination of a potential Democratic wave and the fact that no incumbent will be running have put this district within reach for Democrats." Ryan had held the seat since 1998, winning re-election in 2016 by 35 percentage points.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee placed the district on its list of 2018 targets in November 2017. On August 15, 2018, the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) announced that it was adding Bryan Steil (R) to its Contenders list, the second tier of the Young Guns program, meaning he would receive organizational and financial support from the group.
Ryan and Pres. Donald Trump (R) endorsed Steil in the race. Bryce received endorsements from Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), and former Pres. Barack Obama (D).
All 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives were up for election in 2018. The Democratic Party gained a net total of 40 seats, winning control of the chamber. This race was identified as a 2018 battleground that might have affected partisan control of the U.S. House in the 116th Congress. Heading into the election, the Republican Party was in the majority holding 235 seats to Democrats' 193 seats, with seven vacant seats. Democrats needed to win 23 GOP-held seats in 2018 to win control of the House. From 1918 to 2016, the president’s party lost an average of 29 seats in midterm elections.
Wisconsin's 1st Congressional District election, 2018
| Poll | Randy Bryce | Bryan Steil | Undecided | Margin of Error | Sample Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYT Upshot/Siena College September 11-13, 2018 | 44% | 50% | 6% | +/-4.7 | 500 |
The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.
| Name | Party | Receipts* | Disbursements** | Cash on hand | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Bryce | Democratic Party | $8,624,818 | $8,616,498 | $8,320 | As of December 31, 2018 |
| Bryan Steil | Republican Party | $2,314,019 | $2,287,663 | $26,356 | As of December 31, 2018 |
| Ken Yorgan | Independent | $0 | $0 | $0 | Data not available |
|
Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2018.
* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee." |
|||||
This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in Wisconsin from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the Wisconsin Elections Commission.
This chart shows the results of the presidential election in Wisconsin every year from 2000 to 2016.
Election results (President of the United States), Wisconsin 2000-2016
| Year | First-place candidate | First-place candidate votes (%) | Second-place candidate | Second-place candidate votes (%) | Margin of victory (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 |  Donald Trump |
47.8% |  Hillary Clinton |
46.3% | 1.5% |
| 2012 | Barack Obama |
52.8% | Mitt Romney |
45.9% | 6.9% |
| 2008 | Barack Obama |
56.2% | John McCain |
42.3% | 13.9% |
| 2004 | John Kerry |
49.7% | George W. Bush |
49.3% | 0.4% |
| 2000 | Al Gore |
47.8% | George W. Bush |
47.6% | 0.2% |
This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in Wisconsin from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.
Election results (U.S. Senator), Wisconsin 2000-2016
| Year | First-place candidate | First-place candidate votes (%) | Second-place candidate | Second-place candidate votes (%) | Margin of victory (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | Ron Johnson |
50.2% | Russ Feingold |
46.8% | 3.4% |
| 2012 | Tammy Baldwin |
51.4% | Tommy Thompson |
45.9% | 5.5% |
| 2010 | Ron Johnson |
51.9% | Russ Feingold |
47.0% | 4.9% |
| 2006 | Herb Kohl |
67.3% | Robert Lorge |
29.5% | 37.8% |
| 2004 | Russ Feingold |
55.3% | Tim Michels |
44.1% | 11.2% |
| 2000 | Herb Kohl |
61.5% | John Gillespie |
37.0% | 24.5% |
This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in Wisconsin.
Election results (Governor), Wisconsin 2000-2016
| Year | First-place candidate | First-place candidate votes (%) | Second-place candidate | Second-place candidate votes (%) | Margin of victory (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | Scott Walker |
52.3% | Mary Burke |
46.6% | 5.7% |
| 2010 | Scott Walker |
52.3% | Tom Barrett |
46.5% | 5.8% |
| 2006 | Jim Doyle |
52.7% | Mark Green |
45.3% | 7.4% |
| 2002 | Jim Doyle |
45.1% | Scott McCallum |
41.4% | 3.7% |
This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent Wisconsin in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.
Congressional delegation, Wisconsin 2000-2016
| Year | Republicans | Republicans (%) | Democrats | Democrats (%) | Balance of power |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 5 |
62.5% | 3 |
37.5% | R+2 |
| 2014 | 5 |
62.5% | 3 |
37.5% | R+2 |
| 2012 | 5 |
62.5% | 3 |
37.5% | R+2 |
| 2010 | 5 |
62.5% | 3 |
37.5% | R+2 |
| 2008 | 3 |
37.5% | 5 |
62.5% | D+2 |
| 2006 | 3 |
37.5% | 5 |
62.5% | D+2 |
| 2004 | 4 |
50% | 4 |
50% | - |
| 2002 | 4 |
50% | 4 |
50% | - |
| 2000 | 4 |
44.4% | 5 |
55.6% | D+1 |
A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.
Wisconsin Party Control: 1992-2019
Two years of Democratic trifectas • 10 years of Republican trifectas
| Year | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 00 | 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Governor | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | D |
| Senate | D | R | R | R | D | D | R | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R |
| House | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R |
Demographic data for Wisconsin
| Wisconsin | U.S. | |
|---|---|---|
| Total population: | 5,767,891 | 316,515,021 |
| Land area (sq mi): | 54,158 | 3,531,905 |
| Gender | ||
| Female: | 50.3% | 50.8% |
| Race and ethnicity** | ||
| White: | 86.5% | 73.6% |
| Black/African American: | 6.3% | 12.6% |
| Asian: | 2.5% | 5.1% |
| Native American: | 0.9% | 0.8% |
| Pacific Islander: | 0% | 0.2% |
| Two or more: | 2.1% | 3% |
| Hispanic/Latino: | 6.3% | 17.1% |
| Education | ||
| High school graduation rate: | 91% | 86.7% |
| College graduation rate: | 27.8% | 29.8% |
| Income | ||
| Median household income: | $53,357 | $53,889 |
| Persons below poverty level: | 15% | 11.3% |
| Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015) for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Wisconsin. | ||
As of July 2017, Wisconsin had a population of approximately 5,800,000 people, with its three largest cities being Milwaukee (pop. est. 600,000), Madison (pop. est. 250,000), and Green Bay (pop. est. 110,000).
