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Ohio Attorney General Mike DeWine (R) defeated former Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Director Richard Cordray (D), Constance Gadell-Newton (G), and Travis Irvine (L) in the general election for governor of Ohio on November 6, 2018.
Incumbent John Kasich (R) was prevented from seeking election to a third term due to term limits, leaving the seat open. Kasich was last elected in 2014 by a margin of 31 percentage points. Of the ten preceding gubernatorial elections, a Republican candidate won seven—including Kasich's victories in 2010 and 2014—and a Democratic candidate won three. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) carried the state by a margin of 8 percentage points. Election forecasters considered the race to be close; as of November 2018, the race was rated Toss-up by three elections forecasters.
DeWine's victory preserved the state's Republican trifecta. At the time of the election, Ohio had been a Republican trifecta since Republicans gained a majority in the state House and John Kasich (R) took office as governor in 2010. The winner of this election stood to influence the state's redistricting process following the 2020 census. Under Ohio state law, the governor may veto congressional district maps proposed by the state legislature and sits on the seven-member commission responsible for drawing a congressional district map in the event the legislature is unable to settle on a proposal. The governor also sits on the seven-member commission responsible for drawing new state legislative district maps.
Ohio was one of 36 states that held an election for governor in 2018. Democrats gained seven previously Republican-held seats, and Republicans gained one previously independent-held seat. Heading into the 2018 elections, there were 16 Democratic governors, 33 Republican governors, and one independent governor. In 2018, 26 of the 33 states with a Republican governor held a gubernatorial election, while nine out of the 16 states with a Democratic governor held a gubernatorial election. Seventeen of the 36 seats up for election were open seats (four Democratic, 12 Republican, and one independent), meaning that the sitting governor was not seeking re-election.
Governor of Ohio, 2018
| Poll | Poll sponsor | Cordray (D) | DeWine (R) | Undecided/Other | Margin of Error | Sample Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cygnal (October 30-31, 2018) | N/A | 43% | 43% | 14% | +/-4.4 | 503 |
| Gravis Marketing (October 29-30, 2018) | N/A | 48% | 43% | 9% | +/-3.5 | 789 |
| Emerson College (October 26-28, 2018) | N/A | 49% | 46% | 3% | +/-4.3 | 566 |
| Baldwin Wallace University (October 19-27, 2018) | N/A | 39% | 39% | 22% | +/-3.8 | 1,051 |
| Suffolk University (October 4-8, 2018) | The Cincinnati Enquirer | 46% | 40% | 14% | +/-4.4 | 500 |
Governor of Ohio, 2018
| Poll | Poll sponsor | Cordray (D) | DeWine (R) | Undecided/Other | Margin of Error | Sample Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baldwin Wallace University (September 28 - October 8, 2018) | N/A | 39% | 42% | 19% | +/-3.5 | 1,017 |
| Triton Polling and Research (September 18-20, 2018) | The Ohio Star | 44% | 49% | 8% | +/-3.1 | 1,003 |
| Marist College (September 16-20, 2018) | NBC News | 47% | 47% | 7% | +/-5.0 | 564 |
| Ipsos (September 13-20, 2018) | Thomson Reuters/University of Virginia | 44% | 45% | 11% | +/-3.4 | 1,074 |
| Baldwin Wallace University (September 5-15, 2018) | N/A | 37% | 42% | 21% | +/-3.6 | 1,048 |
| Politico (September 2-11, 2018) | AARP | 38% | 39% | 23% | +/-2.0 | 1,592 |
| Change Research (August 31 - September 4, 2018) | Innovation Ohio | 43% | 43% | 14% | +/-3.0 | 822 |
| Marist College (June 17-22, 2018) | NBC News | 42% | 46% | 13% | +/-4.0 | 946 |
| Quinnipiac University (June 7-12, 2018) | N/A | 42% | 40% | 18% | +/-3.7 | 1,082 |
| Suffolk University (June 6-11, 2018) | The Cincinnati Enquirer | 43% | 36% | 16% | +/-4.4 | 500 |
| Ohio governor 2018 (Cordray vs. DeWine hypothetical matchup) | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poll | Poll sponsor | Richard Cordray (D) | Mike DeWine (R) | Undecided/Other | Margin of error | Sample size | ||||||||
| Public Policy Polling (May 6-7, 2018) | Democratic Party of Ohio | 44% | 39% | 17% | +/-3.9 | 618 | ||||||||
| Public Policy Polling (April 25-26, 2018) | N/A | 47% | 38% | 14% | +/-3.5 | 770 | ||||||||
| SurveyUSA (March 16-20, 2018) | N/A | 39% | 47% | 14% | +/-3.5 | 1,408 | ||||||||
| Public Policy Polling (January 22-23, 2018) | N/A | 44% | 45% | 11% | +/-4.1 | 585 | ||||||||
| Fallon Research (January 16-19, 2018) | N/A | 28% | 49% | 23% | +/-3.5 | 801 | ||||||||
| AVERAGES | 40.4% | 43.6% | 15.8% | +/-3.7 | 836.4 | |||||||||
| Ohio governor 2018 (Kucinich vs. DeWine hypothetical matchup) | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poll | Dennis Kucinich (D) | Mike DeWine (R) | Undecided/Other | Margin of error | Sample size | |||||||||
| SurveyUSA (March 16-20, 2018) | 38% | 51% | 12% | +/-3.5 | 1,408 | |||||||||
The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage. Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.
Race ratings: Ohio gubernatorial election, 2018
| Race tracker | Race ratings | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 5, 2018 | October 30, 2018 | October 23, 2018 | October 16, 2018 | |
| The Cook Political Report | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up |
| Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales | Toss-up | Tilt Republican | Tilt Republican | Tilt Republican |
| Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up |
Republican incumbent John Kasich won re-election on November 4, 2014.
Governor and Lieutenant Governor of Ohio, 2014
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican |  John Kasich/Mary Taylor Incumbent |
63.6% | 1,944,848 | |
| Democratic | Ed FitzGerald/Sharen Neuhardt | 33% | 1,009,359 | |
| Green | Anita Rios/Bob Fitrakis | 3.3% | 101,706 | |
| Total Votes | 3,055,913 | |||
| Election results via Ohio Secretary of State | ||||
On November 2, 2010, John Kasich/Mary Taylor won election to the office of Governor/Lt. Governor of Ohio. He ran unopposed in the general election.
Governor/Lt. Governor of Ohio, 2010
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | John Kasich/Mary Taylor |
49% | 1,889,186 | |
| Democratic | Ted Strickland/Yvette McGee Brown Incumbent | 47% | 1,812,059 | |
| Libertarian | Ken Matesz/Margaret Ann Leech | 2.4% | 92,116 | |
| Green | Dennis Spisak/Anita Rios | 1.5% | 58,475 | |
| Write-In | David Sargent | 0% | 633 | |
| Total Votes | 3,852,469 | |||
| Election results via Ohio Secretary of State. | ||||
On November 7, 2006, Ted Strickland/Lee Fisher won election to the office of Governor/Lt. Governor of Ohio. He defeated J. Kenneth Blackwell, Robert Fitrakis, William S. Peirce, Larry Bays and James Lundeen in the general election.
Governor/Lt. Governor of Ohio, 2006
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Ted Strickland/Lee Fisher |
60.5% | 2,435,505 | |
| Republican | J. Kenneth Blackwell/Tom Raga | 36.6% | 1,474,331 | |
| Non-Partisan | William S. Peirce | 1.8% | 71,473 | |
| Non-Partisan | Robert Fitrakis | 1% | 40,967 | |
| Write-In | James Lundeen | 0% | 579 | |
| Write-In | Larry Bays | 0% | 73 | |
| Total Votes | 4,022,928 | |||
| Election results via Ohio Secretary of State. | ||||
On November 5, 2002, Bob Taft won re-election to the office of Governor/Lt. Governor of Ohio. He defeated Timothy Hagan, John Eastman, James Whitman and Eva Braiman in the general election.
Governor/Lt. Governor of Ohio, 2002
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Bob Taft Incumbent |
57.8% | 1,865,007 | |
| Democratic | Timothy Hagan | 38.3% | 1,236,924 | |
| Independent | John Eastman | 3.9% | 126,686 | |
| Write-In | James Whitman | 0% | 291 | |
| Write-In | Eva Braiman | 0% | 84 | |
| Total Votes | 3,228,992 | |||
| Election results via Ohio Secretary of State. | ||||
Demographic data for Ohio
| Ohio | U.S. | |
|---|---|---|
| Total population: | 11,605,090 | 316,515,021 |
| Land area (sq mi): | 40,861 | 3,531,905 |
| Gender | ||
| Female: | 51.1% | 50.8% |
| Race and ethnicity** | ||
| White: | 82.4% | 73.6% |
| Black/African American: | 12.2% | 12.6% |
| Asian: | 1.9% | 5.1% |
| Native American: | 0.2% | 0.8% |
| Pacific Islander: | 0% | 0.2% |
| Two or more: | 2.5% | 3% |
| Hispanic/Latino: | 3.4% | 17.1% |
| Education | ||
| High school graduation rate: | 89.1% | 86.7% |
| College graduation rate: | 26.1% | 29.8% |
| Income | ||
| Median household income: | $49,429 | $53,889 |
| Persons below poverty level: | 19.6% | 11.3% |
| Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015) for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Ohio. | ||
As of July 2017, Ohio had a population of 11,700,000 people, with its three largest cities being Columbus (pop. est. 860,000), Cleveland (pop. est. 390,000), and Cincinnati (pop. est. 300,000).
