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U.S. Rep. Kevin Cramer (R) defeated incumbent Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D) in the November 6, 2018, general election to represent North Dakota in the United States Senate.
Heitkamp was first elected in 2012, winning by 1 percentage point. Donald Trump (R) won the state by 36 points in the 2016 presidential election. While the state voted for the Republican presidential nominee in the five elections from 2000 to 2016, Trump's was the largest margin of victory. The Hill listed this seat as the most likely Senate seat to flip in 2018.
Thirty-five of the 100 seats in the United States Senate were up for election in 2018, including two seats up for special election. Republicans gained four previously Democratic-held seats and Democrats gained two previously Republican-held seats, resulting in a net gain of two seats for the Republican Party and a 53-seat majority in the chamber. This race was identified as a 2018 battleground that might have affected partisan control of the chamber in the 116th Congress. At the time of the election, Republicans held a 51-seat Senate majority. Democrats held 47 seats, and the two independents caucused with them. Democrats faced greater partisan risk in 2018, as they were defending 26 seats while Republicans were only defending nine. Democrats had to defend seats in 10 states Donald Trump (R) won. The GOP defended one Senate seat in a state Hillary Clinton (D) won.
U.S. Senate election in North Dakota, Cramer (R) v. Heitkamp (D)
| Poll | Poll sponsor |  Cramer |
 Heitkamp | Undecided | Margin of error | Sample size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anderson Robbins Research (D)/Shaw & Company Research (R) October 27-30, 2018 | FOX News | 51% | 42% | 4% | +/-3 | 789 |
| Strategic Research Associates October 12-19, 2018 | Gray TV | 56% | 40% | 4% | +/-3.8 | 650 |
| Anderson Robbins Research (D)/Shaw & Company Research (R) Sept. 28-Oct. 2, 2018 | FOX News | 53% | 41% | 3% | +/-3.5 | 704 |
| Strategic Research Associates September 17-27, 2018 | Gray TV | 51% | 41% | 8% | +/-3.8 | 650 |
| Anderson Robbins Research (D)/Shaw & Company Research (R) September 8-11, 2018 | FOX News | 48% | 44% | 6% | +/-3.5 | 701 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling and Strategy June 13-15, 2018 | N/A | 48% | 44% | 8% | +/-4 | 625 |
| AVERAGES | 51.17% | 42% | 5.5% | +/-3.6 | 686.5 |
U.S. Senate election in North Dakota, Campbell (R) v. Heitkamp (D) (hypothetical match-up)
| Poll | Tom Campbell (R) | Heidi Heitkamp (D) | Other | Margin of Error | Sample Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1892 Polling October 11-12, 2017 | 44% | 41% | 15% | +/-4.9 | 500 |
| 1892 Polling May 30-June 1, 2017 | 37% | 43% | 20% | +/-4.9 | 500 |
U.S. Senate election in North Dakota, Republican primary
| Poll | Tom Campbell (R) | Rick Berg (R) | Other candidate(s) | Undecided | Margin of Error | Sample Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1892 Polling October 11-12, 2017 | 32% | 34% | 9% | 35% | +/-4.0 | 400 |
| 1892 Polling May 30-June 1, 2017 | 7% | 39% | 9% | 45% | +/-4.0 | 400 |
The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.
| Name | Party | Receipts* | Disbursements** | Cash on hand | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heidi Heitkamp | Democratic Party | $29,525,600 | $23,660,194 | $6,483,856 | As of December 31, 2018 |
| Kevin Cramer | Republican Party | $6,031,116 | $6,231,101 | $195,522 | As of December 31, 2018 |
|
Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2018.
* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee." |
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rated North Dakota's U.S. Senate race as safely Republican. Incumbent John Hoeven (R) defeated Eliot Glassheim (D), Robert Marquette (L), and James Germalic (I) in the general election on November 8, 2016. No candidate faced a primary opponent in June.
U.S. Senate, North Dakota General Election, 2016
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican |  John Hoeven Incumbent |
78.5% | 268,788 | |
| Democratic | Eliot Glassheim | 17% | 58,116 | |
| Libertarian | Robert Marquette | 3.1% | 10,556 | |
| Independent | James Germalic | 1.4% | 4,675 | |
| N/A | Write-in | 0.1% | 366 | |
| Total Votes | 342,501 | |||
| Source: North Dakota Secretary of State | ||||
On November 6, 2012, Heidi Heitkamp (D) won election to the United States Senate. She defeated Rick Berg (R) in the general election.
U.S. Senate, North Dakota General Election, 2012
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Heidi Heitkamp |
50.5% | 161,337 | |
| Republican | Rick Berg | 49.5% | 158,401 | |
| Total Votes | 319,738 | |||
| Source: North Dakota Secretary of State "Official Election Results, 2012 General Election" | ||||
Demographic data for North Dakota
| North Dakota | U.S. | |
|---|---|---|
| Total population: | 756,835 | 316,515,021 |
| Land area (sq mi): | 69,001 | 3,531,905 |
| Gender | ||
| Female: | 49% | 50.8% |
| Race and ethnicity** | ||
| White: | 88.7% | 73.6% |
| Black/African American: | 1.6% | 12.6% |
| Asian: | 1.2% | 5.1% |
| Native American: | 5.3% | 0.8% |
| Pacific Islander: | 0% | 0.2% |
| Two or more: | 2.2% | 3% |
| Hispanic/Latino: | 2.9% | 17.1% |
| Education | ||
| High school graduation rate: | 91.7% | 86.7% |
| College graduation rate: | 27.7% | 29.8% |
| Income | ||
| Median household income: | $57,181 | $53,889 |
| Persons below poverty level: | 12.2% | 11.3% |
| Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015) for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in North Dakota. | ||
As of July 2016, North Dakota's three largest cities were Fargo (pop. est. 120,000), Bismarck (pop. est. 73,000), and Grand Forks (pop. est. 57,000).
