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Michigan, Governor

Former state Senate Minority Leader Gretchen Whitmer (D) defeated Michigan Attorney General Bill Schuette (R) and four other candidates in the general election on November 6, 2018, for Michigan's governorship. Activist Garlin Gilchrist II (D) was Whitmer's running mate, while state Rep. Lisa Posthumus Lyons (R) was Schuette's running mate.

Michigan came under divided government in the 2018 elections as Democrats won the governor's office and Republicans held the state legislature. Heading into the election, Michigan had been a Republican trifecta since 2010 when Republicans took control of the Michigan House of Representatives and the governorship and maintained control of the Michigan State Senate.

The winner of this election stood to influence the state's redistricting process following the 2020 census. Under Michigan state law, the state Legislature is responsible for drawing new maps for U.S. House and state legislative seats following the completion of the census. The governor has the power to veto these district map proposals.

Incumbent Gov. Rick Snyder (R), who was term-limited, was first elected in 2010 by 18.2 percentage points and re-elected in 2014 by 4.0 percentage points. Snyder was the only Republican to win a gubernatorial or U.S. Senate election in Michigan from 2000 to 2017. Donald Trump (R) won Michigan in the 2016 presidential election by 0.2 percentage points. He was the first Republican to win Michigan since George H.W. Bush in 1988. Of the past ten gubernatorial elections in Michigan, four have resulted in the seat changing hands. The last time a Michigan gubernatorial election was won by a candidate who shares a party with the outgoing incumbent was in 1968 when William Milliken (R) was elected to succeed George Romney (R).

Michigan was one of 36 states that held an election for governor in 2018. Democrats gained seven previously Republican-held seats, and Republicans gained one previously independent-held seat. Heading into the 2018 elections, there were 16 Democratic governors, 33 Republican governors, and one independent governor. In 2018, 26 of the 33 states with a Republican governor held a gubernatorial election, while nine out of the 16 states with a Democratic governor held a gubernatorial election. Seventeen of the 36 seats up for election were open seats (four Democratic, 12 Republican, and one independent), meaning that the sitting governor was not seeking re-election.

Third party candidates who ran included Jennifer Kurland (G), Bill Gelineau (L), Keith Butkovich (Natural Law), and Todd Schleiger (U.S. Taxpayers).

Polls

Michigan Governor 2018

Poll Poll sponsor Democratic Party Gretchen Whitmer Republican Party Bill SchuetteUndecided/OtherMargin of errorSample size
Mitchell Research & Communications
(Nov. 4, 2018)
N/A 54%40%6%+/-3.7701
Target Insyght
(Oct. 22-24, 2018)
N/A 48%44%8%+/-3.0800
Glengariff Group Inc.
(Oct. 25-27, 2018)
The Detroit News and WDIV 50%38%12%+/-4.0600
Mitchell Research and Communications
(Oct. 25, 2018)
N/A 48%43%9%+/-5.0400
EPIC-MRA
(Oct. 18-23, 2018)
Detroit Free Press, WLNS-TV 6, WOOD-TV 8, WJRT-TV 12 46%41%13%+/-4.0600
ALG Research
(Oct. 15-21, 2018)
Whitmer campaign 47%36%17%+/-3.3906
Marketing Resource Group
(Oct. 14-18, 2018)
N/A 50%36%14%+/-4.0600
Mitchell Research & Communications
(September 30-Oct. 7, 2018)
The Michigan Chamber of Commerce 46%38%16%+/-3.8654
Glengariff Group Inc.
(September 20-Oct. 2, 2018)
The Detroit News and WDIV 47%35%18%+/-4.0600
EPIC-MRA
(September 21-25, 2018)
The Detroit Free Press, WLNS TV 6, WOOD TV, and WJRT TV 12 45%37%18%+/-4.0600
Ipsos Public Affairs
(September 14-21, 2018)
Thomson Reuters/University of Virginia 52%31%26%+/-3.31,150
Mitchell Research and Communications
(September 12-13, 2018)
MIRS 48%38%14%+/-3.01,009
Target-Insyght
(September 10-14, 2018)
MIRS 50%41%9%+/-3.0800
Strategic National
(September 8-9, 2018)
WJML 49%39%12%+/-3.11,000
AVERAGES 48.57% 38.36% 13.71% +/-3.66 744.29

Michigan Governor 2018

Poll Poll sponsor Democratic Party Gretchen Whitmer Republican Party Bill SchuetteUndecided/OtherMargin of ErrorSample Size
Glengariff Group Inc.
(September 5-7, 2018)
The Detroit News and WDIV-TV 50%36%14%+/-4.0400
Strategic National
(August 13-14, 2018)
WJML 45%36%19%+/-3.7700


Race rating

The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage. Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.

Race ratings: Michigan gubernatorial election, 2018

Race trackerRace ratings
November 5, 2018October 30, 2018October 23, 2018October 16, 2018
The Cook Political ReportLean DemocraticLean DemocraticLean DemocraticLean Democratic
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesLean DemocraticLean DemocraticLean DemocraticLean Democratic
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallLikely DemocraticLikely DemocraticLikely DemocraticLikely Democratic

Election history

2014

Governor and Lieutenant Governor of Michigan, 2014

Party Candidate Vote % Votes
Republican Green check mark transparent.pngRick Snyder/Brian Calley Incumbent 50.9% 1,607,399
Democratic Mark Schauer/Lisa Brown 46.9% 1,479,057
Libertarian Mary Buzuma/Scott Boman 1.1% 35,723
U.S. Taxpayers Mark McFarlin/Richard Mendoza 0.6% 19,368
Green Paul Homeniuk/Candace R. Caveny 0.5% 14,934
Nonpartisan Write-in votes 0% 50
Total Votes 3,156,531
Election results via Michigan Department of State

2010

Michigan Governor, 2010

Party Candidate Vote % Votes
Republican Green check mark transparent.pngRick Snyder 58.1% 1,874,834
Democratic Virg Bernero 39.9% 1,287,320
Libertarian Ken Proctor 0.7% 22,390
Taxpayers Stacey Mathia 0.6% 20,818
Green Harvey Mikkelson 0.6% 20,699
Other Write-ins 0% 27
Total Votes 3,226,088

Demographics

Demographic data for Michigan

MichiganU.S.
Total population:9,917,715316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):56,5393,531,905
Gender
Female:50.9%50.8%
Race and ethnicity**
White:79%73.6%
Black/African American:14%12.6%
Asian:2.7%5.1%
Native American:0.5%0.8%
Pacific Islander:0%0.2%
Two or more:2.6%3%
Hispanic/Latino:4.7%17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:89.6%86.7%
College graduation rate:26.9%29.8%
Income
Median household income:$49,576$53,889
Persons below poverty level:20%11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Michigan.

As of July 2016, Michigan's three largest cities were Detroit (pop. est. 673,000), Grand Rapids (pop. est. 199,000), and Warren (pop. est. 135,000).