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Maine, Governor

Maine Attorney General Janet Mills (D) defeated businessman Shawn Moody (R) and State Treasurer Teresea Hayes (I) in the general election on November 6, 2018, for Maine's governorship.

Democrats won a trifecta in Maine by winning the governor's office and the Maine State Senate and holding the Maine House of Representatives. Heading into the election, Maine had been under divided government since 2012 when Democrats took control of the state House and the state Senate while Republican Paul LePage held the governorship. Republicans took control of the governorship in 2010 when LePage was first elected and took back control of the state Senate in 2014.

The winner of this election stood to influence the state's redistricting process following the 2020 census. Under Maine state law, the state legislature is responsible for drawing new maps for U.S. House and state legislative seats following the completion of the census. The governor has the power to veto these district map proposals.

LePage, who was term-limited, was first elected in 2010 with 37.6 percent of the vote. Former Carter administration aide Eliot R. Cutler (I) received 35.9 percent and state Sen. Elizabeth Mitchell (D) received 18.8 percent. In 2014, LePage was re-elected with 48.2 percent of the vote. U.S. Rep. Mike Michaud (D) received 43.4 percent and Cutler received 8.4 percent.

Of the 10 gubernatorial elections in Maine prior to 2018, five resulted in the seat changing hands. Prior to 2018, the last time a Maine gubernatorial election was won by a candidate who shared a party with the outgoing incumbent was in 1952 when Burton Cross (R) was elected to succeed Frederick Payne (R).

Businessman Alan Caron (I) withdrew from the race on October 29. Caron's name appeared on the ballot, but votes cast for him were counted as blank.

Maine was one of 36 states that held an election for governor in 2018. Democrats gained seven previously Republican-held seats, and Republicans gained one previously independent-held seat. Heading into the 2018 elections, there were 16 Democratic governors, 33 Republican governors, and one independent governor. In 2018, 26 of the 33 states with a Republican governor held a gubernatorial election, while nine out of the 16 states with a Democratic governor held a gubernatorial election. Seventeen of the 36 seats up for election were open seats (four Democratic, 12 Republican, and one independent), meaning that the sitting governor was not seeking re-election.


Polls

Maine Governor 2018

Poll Poll sponsor Janet Mills (D) Shawn Moody (R)Alan Caron (I)Teresea Hayes (I)Undecided/OtherMargin of errorSample size
Slingshot Strategies (registered voters)
(Nov. 1, 2018)
N/A 55%38%0%7%0%+/-4.0518
Emerson College
(Oct. 27-29, 2018)
N/A 50%42%0%0%8%+/-3.5900
Pan Atlantic Research
(Oct. 1-7, 2018)
N/A 44%36%2%8%10%+/-4.4500
Change Research (head to head between Mills and Moody)
(Sept. 30-Oct. 1, 2018)
N/A 52%44%0%0%4%+/-3.0801
Slingshot Strategies (Caron excluded)
(Sept. 26-30, 2018)
Hayes Campaign 41%33%0%10%16%+/-4.0600
Suffolk University
(August 2-6, 2018)
N/A 39%39%3%4%16%+/-4.4500
AVERAGES 46.83% 38.67% 0.83% 4.83% 9% +/-3.88 636.5


Race ratings

The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage. Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.

Race ratings: Maine gubernatorial election, 2018

Race trackerRace ratings
November 5, 2018October 30, 2018October 23, 2018October 16, 2018
The Cook Political ReportToss-upToss-upToss-upToss-up
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesTilt DemocraticTilt DemocraticTilt DemocraticTilt Democratic
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallToss-upToss-upToss-upToss-up

Election history

2014

Governor of Maine, 2014

Party Candidate Vote % Votes
Republican Green check mark transparent.pngPaul LePage Incumbent 48.2% 294,519
Democratic Mike Michaud 43.4% 265,114
Independent Eliot Cutler 8.4% 51,515
Nonpartisan Write-in votes 0% 79
Total Votes 611,227
Election results via Maine Bureau of Corporations, Elections & Commissions

2010

Governor of Maine, 2010

Party Candidate Vote % Votes
Republican Green check mark transparent.pngPaul LePage 37.6% 218,065
Democratic Elizabeth Mitchell 18.8% 109,387
Independent Eliot R. Cutler 35.9% 208,270
Independent Shawn H. Moody 5% 28,756
Independent Kevin L. Scott 1% 5,664
Others Various 0.5% 2,624
Blanks - 1.3% 7,772
Total Votes 580,538
Election results via Maine Secretary of State

Demographics

Demographic data for Maine

MaineU.S.
Total population:1,329,453316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):30,8433,531,905
Gender
Female:51.1%50.8%
Race and ethnicity**
White:95%73.6%
Black/African American:1.1%12.6%
Asian:1.1%5.1%
Native American:0.6%0.8%
Pacific Islander:0%0.2%
Two or more:2%3%
Hispanic/Latino:1.5%17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:91.6%86.7%
College graduation rate:29%29.8%
Income
Median household income:$49,331$53,889
Persons below poverty level:16.6%11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Maine.

As of July 2016, Maine's three largest cities were Portland (pop. est. 65,000), Lewiston (pop. est. 35,000), and Bangor (pop. est. 30,000).