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Nonprofit executive Katie Hill (D) defeated incumbent Rep. Steve Knight (R) in the general election for California's 25th Congressional District on November 6, 2018.
All 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives were up for election in 2018. The Democratic Party gained a net total of 40 seats, winning control of the chamber. This race was identified as a 2018 battleground that might have affected partisan control of the U.S. House in the 116th Congress. Heading into the election, the Republican Party was in the majority holding 235 seats to Democrats' 193 seats, with seven vacant seats. Democrats needed to win 23 GOP-held seats in 2018 to win control of the House. From 1918 to 2016, the president’s party lost an average of 29 seats in midterm elections.
Knight was first elected in 2014, defeating Republican Tony Strickland by a margin of 5 percentage points. In 2016 he was re-elected, defeating Democrat Bryan Caforio (D) by a margin of 6 percentage points. Hillary Clinton won this district with 50.3 percent of the vote in the 2016 presidential race. Two of the forecastingLos Angeles Times called the race "one of the most fiercely competitive congressional races in the country."
California's 25th Congressional District Election
| Poll | Knight (R) | Hill (D) | Undecided/someone else/didn't answer | Margin of Error | Sample Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYT Upshot/Siena College October 25-28, 2018 | 48% | 44% | 8% | +/-4.8 | 504 |
| UC Berkley/Los Angeles Times September 16-23, 2018 | 46% | 50% | 4% | +/-5% | 680 likely voters |
| NYT Upshot / Siena College Poll September 17-19, 2018 | 47% | 45% | 7% | +/-5% | 500 likely voters |
| Global Strategy Group June 11-21, 2018 | 45% | 40% | 15% | +/-4.9% | 400 likely voters |
Top-two primary in California's 25th Congressional District
| Poll | Knight (R) | Caforio (D) | Hill (D) | Phoenix (D) | Other | Undecided | Margin of Error | Sample Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anzalone Liszt Grove Research February 11-15, 2018 | 43% | 19% | 10% | 7% | 5% | 7% | +/-4.4% | 500 likely voters |
Top-two primary in California's 25th Congressional District
| Poll | Caforio (D) | Knight (R) | Undecided | Margin of Error | Sample Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FM3 Research, Caforio vs. Knight January 24-28, 2018 | 48% | 47% | 5% | +/-3.8 | 650 likely voters |
Top-two primary in California's 25th Congressional District
| Poll | Hill (D) | Knight (R) | Undecided | Margin of Error | Sample Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FM3 Research, Hill vs. Knight January 24-28, 2018 | 53% | 40% | 7% | +/-3.8 | 650 likely voters |
The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.
| Name | Party | Receipts* | Disbursements** | Cash on hand | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Katie Hill | Democratic Party | $8,569,626 | $8,505,044 | $64,582 | As of December 31, 2018 |
| Stephen Knight | Republican Party | $2,622,684 | $2,631,813 | $28,064 | As of December 31, 2018 |
|
Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2018.
* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee." |
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This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in California from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the California Secretary of State.
This chart shows the results of the presidential election in California every year from 2000 to 2016.
Election results (President of the United States), California 2000-2016
| Year | First-place candidate | First-place candidate votes (%) | Second-place candidate | Second-place candidate votes (%) | Margin of victory (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 |  Hillary Clinton |
61.7% |  Donald Trump |
31.6% | 30.1% |
| 2012 | Barack Obama |
60.2% | Mitt Romney |
37.1% | 23.1% |
| 2008 | Barack Obama |
61.1% | John McCain |
37% | 24.1% |
| 2004 | John Kerry |
54.4% | George W. Bush |
44.4% | 10% |
| 2000 | Al Gore |
53.5% | George W. Bush |
41.7% | 11.8% |
This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in California from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.
Election results (U.S. Senator), California 2000-2016
| Year | First-place candidate | First-place candidate votes (%) | Second-place candidate | Second-place candidate votes (%) | Margin of victory (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | Kamala Harris |
61.6% | Loretta Sanchez |
38.4% | 23.2% |
| 2012 | Dianne Feinstein |
62.5% | Elizabeth Emken |
37.5% | 25% |
| 2010 | Barbara Boxer |
52.2% | Carly Fiorina |
42.2% | 10% |
| 2006 | Dianne Feinstein |
59.5% | Richard Mountjoy |
35.1% | 24.4% |
| 2004 | Barbara Boxer |
57.8% | Bill Jones |
37.8% | 20% |
| 2000 | Dianne Feinstein |
55.9% | Tom Campbell |
36.6% | 19.3% |
This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in California.
Election results (Governor), California 2000-2016
| Year | First-place candidate | First-place candidate votes (%) | Second-place candidate | Second-place candidate votes (%) | Margin of victory (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | Jerry Brown |
60% | Neel Kashkari |
40% | 20% |
| 2010 | Jerry Brown |
53.8% | Meg Whitman |
40.9% | 12.9% |
| 2006 | Arnold Schwarzenegger |
55.9% | Phil Angelides |
39.0% | 16.9% |
| 2002 | Gray Davis |
47.3% | Bill Simon |
42.4% | 4.9% |
This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent California in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.
Congressional delegation, California 2000-2016
| Year | Democrats | Democrats (%) | Republicans | Republicans (%) | Balance of power |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 39 |
73.5% | 14 |
26.4% | D+25 |
| 2014 | 39 |
73.5% | 14 |
26.4% | D+25 |
| 2012 | 38 |
71.7% | 15 |
28.3% | D+23 |
| 2010 | 34 |
64.1% | 19 |
35.8% | D+15 |
| 2008 | 34 |
64.1% | 19 |
35.8% | D+15 |
| 2006 | 34 |
64.1% | 19 |
35.8% | D+15 |
| 2004 | 33 |
62.3% | 20 |
37.7% | D+13 |
| 2002 | 33 |
62.3% | 20 |
37.7% | D+13 |
| 2000 | 32 |
61.5% | 20 |
38.5% | D+12 |
A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.
California Party Control: 1992-2019
14 years of Democratic trifectas • No Republican trifectas
| Year | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 00 | 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Governor | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | D | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D |
| Senate | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D |
| Assembly | D | D | D | S | R | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D |
Demographic data for California
| California | U.S. | |
|---|---|---|
| Total population: | 38,993,940 | 316,515,021 |
| Land area (sq mi): | 155,779 | 3,531,905 |
| Gender | ||
| Female: | 50.3% | 50.8% |
| Race and ethnicity** | ||
| White: | 61.8% | 73.6% |
| Black/African American: | 5.9% | 12.6% |
| Asian: | 13.7% | 5.1% |
| Native American: | 0.7% | 0.8% |
| Pacific Islander: | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Two or more: | 4.5% | 3% |
| Hispanic/Latino: | 38.4% | 17.1% |
| Education | ||
| High school graduation rate: | 81.8% | 86.7% |
| College graduation rate: | 31.4% | 29.8% |
| Income | ||
| Median household income: | $61,818 | $53,889 |
| Persons below poverty level: | 18.2% | 11.3% |
| Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015) for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in California. | ||
As of July 2016, California had a population of approximately 39,000,000 people, with its three largest cities being Los Angeles (pop. est. 4.0 million), San Diego (pop. est. 1.4 million), and San Jose (pop. est. 1 million).
