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U.S. Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D) defeated U.S. Rep. Martha McSally (R) in the general election for U.S. Senate in Arizona on November 6, 2018. Sinema's victory was the closest U.S. Senate election in the state since former Sen. Barry Goldwater (R) won re-election to his third and final term by fewer than 10,000 votes over Democrat Bill Schulz in 1980.
Incumbent Sen. Jeff Flake (R), who was first elected in 2012, did not seek re-election.
Angela Green (G) appeared on the ballot, but she withdrew from the race and endorsed Sinema on November 1, 2018.
A Democratic victory in this race was considered critical to the party potentially taking control of the chamber. "The Democratic path to a majority in the Senate is narrow and fraught, and if it exists at all, it runs through Arizona, a conservative state that last sent a Democrat to the upper chamber 30 years ago," The Hill reported.
Thirty-five of the 100 seats in the United States Senate were up for election in 2018, including two seats up for special election. Republicans gained four previously Democratic-held seats and Democrats gained two previously Republican-held seats, resulting in a net gain of two seats for the Republican Party and a 53-seat majority in the chamber. This race was identified as a 2018 battleground that might have affected partisan control of the chamber in the 116th Congress. At the time of the election, Republicans held a 51-seat Senate majority. Democrats held 47 seats, and the two independents caucused with them. Democrats faced greater partisan risk in 2018, as they were defending 26 seats while Republicans were only defending nine. Democrats had to defend seats in 10 states Donald Trump (R) won. The GOP defended one Senate seat in a state Hillary Clinton (D) won.
The race was rated a toss-up by three outlets. The open seat, the state's growing Latino population, and President Donald Trump's (R) four-point margin of victory in the 2016 presidential election made this a competitive election.
U.S. Senate election in Arizona, General election: Sinema vs. McSally
| Poll | Poll sponsor |  Sinema |
 McSally | Other/Undecided | Margin of error | Sample size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ABC 15/OH Predictive Insights November 2-3, 2018 | N/A | 48% | 49% | 3% | +/-3.9 | 631 |
| Trafalgar Group October 30-November 1, 2018 | N/A | 50% | 47% | 3% | +/-2.1 | 2,166 |
| Vox Populi Polling October 27-30, 2018 | N/A | 52% | 48% | 0% | +/-3.7 | 677 |
| Fox News October 27-29, 2018 | N/A | 46% | 46% | 8% | +/-3.5 | 643 |
| CNN/SSRS October 24-29, 2018 | N/A | 51% | 47% | 2% | +/-4.4 | 702 |
| HighGround Public Affairs October 26-28, 2018 | N/A | 45% | 47% | 9% | +/-4.9 | 400 |
| NBC News/Marist October 23-27, 2018 | N/A | 50% | 44% | 6% | +/-5.4 | 506 |
| Reuters/Ipsos/UVA Center for Politics September 17-26, 2018 | N/A | 46% | 48% | 6% | +/-4.0 | 799 |
| ABC 15/OH Predictive Insights October 22-23, 2018 | N/A | 45% | 52% | 3% | +/-4.0 | 600 |
| AVERAGES | 48.11% | 47.56% | 4.44% | +/-3.99 | 791.56 |
U.S. Senate election in Arizona, September 10-October 26, 2018
| Poll | Poll sponsor | Sinema |
McSally | Other/Undecided | Margin of error | Sample size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBS News/YouGov October 23-26, 2018 | N/A | 47% | 44% | 9% | +/-4.1 | 972 |
| The New York Times/Siena College October 15-19, 2018 | N/A | 46% | 48% | 6% | +/-4.2 | 606 |
| Data Orbital October 16-17, 2018 | N/A | 47% | 41% | 12% | +/-4.0 | 600 |
| CBS News/YouGov October 2-5, 2018 | N/A | 47% | 44% | 9% | +/-3.6 | 898 |
| OH Predictive Insights/ABC15 Arizona October 1-2, 2018 | N/A | 41% | 47% | 12% | +/-4.0 | 600 |
| Fox News Poll September 27-October 2, 2018 | N/A | 47% | 45% | 8% | +/-3.5 | 716 |
| Suffolk University September 27-30, 2018 | N/A | 45% | 42% | 13% | +/-4.4 | 500 |
| Latino Decisions September 10-25, 2018 | Arizona State University | 47% | 41% | 11% | +/-3.5 | 775 |
| AVERAGES | 45.88% | 44% | 10% | +/-3.91 | 708.38 |
U.S. Senate election in Arizona, March 15-September 21, 2018
| Poll | Kyrsten Sinema (D) | Martha McSally (R) | Other/Undecided | Margin of Error | Sample Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson September 19-21, 2018 | 45% | 39% | 17% | +/-4.4 | 650 |
| NBC News September 16-20, 2018 | 48% | 45% | 7% | +/-4.7 | 564 |
| CNN/SSRS September 11-15, 2018 | 50% | 43% | 7% | +/-4.3 | 761 |
| Reuters/Ipsos/UVA Center for Politics September 5-14, 2018 | 47% | 44% | 9% | +/-3.5 | 1,016 |
| Fox News September 8-11, 2018 | 47% | 44% | 8% | +/-3.5 | 710 |
| ABC 15/OH Predictive Insights September 5-6, 2018 | 46% | 49% | 5% | +/-4.0 | 597 |
| Gravis Marketing September 5-7, 2018 | 48% | 49% | 3% | +/-3.3 | 882 |
| Data Orbital September 4-6, 2018 | 44% | 40% | 16% | +/-4.2 | 550 |
| ABC 15/OH Predictive Insights July 23-25, 2018 | 48% | 44% | 8% | +/-4.0 | 600 |
| Gravis Marketing June 27-July 2, 2018 | 43% | 39% | 18% | +/-3.2 | 925 |
| Emerson June 21-22, 2018 | 40% | 32% | 28% | +/-4.0 | 650 |
| NBC News/Marist College June 17-21, 2018 | 49% | 38% | 13% | +/-4.5 | 839 |
| Axios/SurveyMonkey April 2-23, 2018 | 51% | 42% | 7% | +/-4.0 | 1,667 |
| Public Policy Polling March 15-16, 2018 | 46% | 41% | 13% | +/-4.2 | 547 |
The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.
| Name | Party | Receipts* | Disbursements** | Cash on hand | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyrsten Sinema | Democratic Party | $22,643,275 | $24,735,383 | $171,527 | As of December 31, 2018 |
| Martha McSally | Republican Party | $21,876,370 | $20,952,576 | $923,794 | As of December 31, 2018 |
| Angela Green | Green Party | $0 | $0 | $0 | Data not available |
|
Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2018.
* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee." |
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U.S. Senate, Arizona General Election, 2016
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican |  John McCain Incumbent |
53.7% | 1,359,267 | |
| Democratic | Ann Kirkpatrick | 40.7% | 1,031,245 | |
| Green | Gary Swing | 5.5% | 138,634 | |
| N/A | Write-in | 0.1% | 1,584 | |
| Total Votes | 2,530,730 | |||
| Source: Arizona Secretary of State | ||||
U.S. Senate, Arizona General Election, 2012
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Jeff Flake |
49.2% | 1,104,457 | |
| Democratic | Richard Carmona | 46.2% | 1,036,542 | |
| Libertarian | Marc Victor | 4.6% | 102,109 | |
| Independent | Steven Watts (Write-in) | 0% | 290 | |
| Independent | Don Manspeaker (Write-in) | 0% | 24 | |
| Total Votes | 2,243,422 | |||
| Source: Arizona Secretary of State "Official Election Results, 2012 General Election" | ||||
Demographic data for Arizona
| Arizona | U.S. | |
|---|---|---|
| Total population: | 6,817,565 | 316,515,021 |
| Land area (sq mi): | 113,594 | 3,531,905 |
| Gender | ||
| Female: | 50.3% | 50.8% |
| Race and ethnicity** | ||
| White: | 78.4% | 73.6% |
| Black/African American: | 4.2% | 12.6% |
| Asian: | 3% | 5.1% |
| Native American: | 4.4% | 0.8% |
| Pacific Islander: | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Two or more: | 3.2% | 3% |
| Hispanic/Latino: | 30.3% | 17.1% |
| Education | ||
| High school graduation rate: | 86% | 86.7% |
| College graduation rate: | 27.5% | 29.8% |
| Income | ||
| Median household income: | $50,255 | $53,889 |
| Persons below poverty level: | 21.2% | 11.3% |
| Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015) for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Arizona. | ||
As of July 2016, Arizona's three largest cities were Phoenix (pop. est. 1,626,078), Tucson (pop. est. 535,677), and Mesa (pop. est. 496,401).
