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Arizona, Governor

Incumbent Doug Ducey (R) defeated professor David Garcia (D) and Angel Torres (G) in the general election on November 6, 2018, for governor of Arizona.

Ducey was first elected in 2014 by a margin of 12 percentage points. Of the ten preceding gubernatorial elections, a Republican candidate won six—including Ducey's victory in 2014—and a Democratic candidate won four. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) carried the state by a margin of 4 percentage points. As of November 2018, three race rating outlets rated the race Likely Republican.

Ducey's victory preserved the state's Republican trifecta. At the time of the 2018 election, Arizona had been a Republican trifecta since Gov. Jan Brewer (R) took office in 2009.

Arizona was one of 36 states that held an election for governor in 2018. Democrats gained seven previously Republican-held seats, and Republicans gained one previously independent-held seat. Heading into the 2018 elections, there were 16 Democratic governors, 33 Republican governors, and one independent governor. In 2018, 26 of the 33 states with a Republican governor held a gubernatorial election, while nine out of the 16 states with a Democratic governor held a gubernatorial election. Seventeen of the 36 seats up for election were open seats (four Democratic, 12 Republican, and one independent), meaning that the sitting governor was not seeking re-election.

Polls

Governor of Arizona, 2018

Poll Poll sponsor Garcia (D) Ducey (R)Undecided/OtherMargin of ErrorSample Size
SSRS
(October 24-29, 2018)
CNN 45%52%2%+/-4.4702
Anderson Robbins Research and Shaw & Company Research
(October 27-29, 2018)
Fox News 37%55%7%+/-3.5643
HighGround
(October 26-28, 2018)
N/A 35%55%10%+/-4.9400
Marist College
(October 23-27, 2018)
NBC News 42%55%2%+/-5.4506
YouGov
(October 23-26, 2018)
CBS News 41%52%7%+/-4.1972

Governor of Arizona, 2018

Poll Poll sponsor Garcia (D) Ducey (R)Undecided/OtherMargin of ErrorSample Size
OH Predictive Insights
(October 22-23, 2018)
ABC 15 Arizona 39%57%4%+/-4.0600
Change Research
(October 9-10, 2018)
The Garcia campaign 40%47%13%+/---783
OH Predictive Insights
(October 3, 2018)
Arizona Capitol Times 37%54%9%+/-4.0600
Anderson Robbins Research and Shaw & Company Research
(September 29-October 2, 2018)
Fox News 37%55%8%+/-3.5716
Data Orbital
(October 1-3, 2018)
N/A 34%52%14%+/-4.2550
Suffolk University
(September 27-30, 2018)
The Arizona Republic 38%50%12%+/-4.4500
Marist College
(September 16-20, 2018)
NBC News 43%51%5%+/-4.7564
SSRS
(September 11-15, 2018)
CNN 45%48%8%+/-4.3761
Arizona State University
(September 10-25, 2018)
N/A 40%45%15%+/-3.5775
TargetSmart
(September 9-13, 2018)
Progress Now Arizona 48%49%3%+/-4.0600
Anderson Robbins Research and Shaw & Company Research
(September 8-11, 2018)
Fox News 40%51%9%+/-3.5710
Gravis Marketing
(September 5-7, 2018)
N/A 44%48%9%+/-3.3882
Data Orbital
(September 4-6, 2018)
N/A 41%49%10%+/-4.2550
Public Policy Polling
(August 30-31, 2018)
The Garcia campaign 43%44%13%+/-4.2554

Race ratings

The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage. Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.

Race ratings: Arizona gubernatorial election, 2018

Race trackerRace ratings
November 5, 2018October 30, 2018October 23, 2018October 16, 2018
The Cook Political ReportLikely RepublicanLikely RepublicanLikely RepublicanLikely Republican
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesLikely RepublicanLikely RepublicanLikely RepublicanLikely Republican
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallLikely RepublicanLikely RepublicanLikely RepublicanLikely Republican

Election history

2014

Governor of Arizona, 2014

Party Candidate Vote % Votes
Republican Green check mark transparent.pngDoug Ducey 53.4% 805,062
Democratic Fred DuVal 41.6% 626,921
Libertarian Barry J. Hess 3.8% 57,337
Americans Elect J.L. Mealer 1% 15,432
Nonpartisan Write-ins 0.1% 1,664
Total Votes 1,506,416
Election results via Arizona Secretary of State

2010

On November 2, 2010, Jan Brewer won re-election to the office of Governor of Arizona. She defeated Terry Goddard (D), Barry J. Hess (LBT), Larry Gist (Green) and various write-in challengers in the general election.

Governor of Arizona, 2010

Party Candidate Vote % Votes
Republican Green check mark transparent.pngJan Brewer Incumbent 54.3% 938,934
Democratic Terry Goddard 42.4% 733,935
Libertarian Barry J. Hess 2.2% 38,722
Green Larry Gist 0.9% 16,128
N/A Write-ins 0.1% 2,017
Total Votes 1,729,736
Election results via Arizona Secretary of State.

2006

On November 7, 2006, Janet Napolitano won re-election to the office of Governor of Arizona. He defeated Len Munsil (R), Barry J. Hess (LBT) and various write-in challengers in the general election.

Governor of Arizona, 2006

Party Candidate Vote % Votes
Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngJanet Napolitano Incumbent 62.6% 959,830
Republican Len Munsil 35.4% 543,528
Libertarian Barry J. Hess 2% 30,268
N/A Write-ins 0% 19
Total Votes 1,533,645
Election results via Arizona Secretary of State.

2002

On November 5, 2002, Janet Napolitano won election to the office of Governor of Arizona. He defeated Matt Salmon (R), Barry Hess (LBT), Richard Mahoney (I), and various write-in challengers in the general election.

Governor of Arizona, 2002

Party Candidate Vote % Votes
Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngJanet Napolitano 46.6% 566,284
Republican Matt Salmon 44.8% 544,465
Libertarian Barry Hess 7% 84,947
Independent Richard Mahoney 1.7% 20,356
N/A Write-ins 0% 59
Total Votes 1,216,111
Election results via Arizona Secretary of State.

Demographics

Demographic data for Arizona

ArizonaU.S.
Total population:6,817,565316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):113,5943,531,905
Gender
Female:50.3%50.8%
Race and ethnicity**
White:78.4%73.6%
Black/African American:4.2%12.6%
Asian:3%5.1%
Native American:4.4%0.8%
Pacific Islander:0.2%0.2%
Two or more:3.2%3%
Hispanic/Latino:30.3%17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:86%86.7%
College graduation rate:27.5%29.8%
Income
Median household income:$50,255$53,889
Persons below poverty level:21.2%11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Arizona.

As of July 2016, Arizona's three largest cities were Phoenix (pop. est. 1,626,078), Tucson (pop. est. 535,677), and Mesa (pop. est. 496,401).