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Incumbent Joe Manchin III (D) defeated state attorney general Patrick Morrisey (R) and petroleum engineer Rusty Hollen (L) in the general election on November 6, 2018, to represent West Virginia in the United States Senate.
Thirty-five of the 100 seats in the United States Senate were up for election in 2018, including two seats up for special election. Republicans gained four previously Democratic-held seats and Democrats gained two previously Republican-held seats, resulting in a net gain of two seats for the Republican Party and a 53-seat majority in the chamber. This race was identified as a 2018 battleground that might have affected partisan control of the chamber in the 116th Congress. At the time of the election, Republicans held a 51-seat Senate majority. Democrats held 47 seats, and the two independents caucused with them. Democrats faced greater partisan risk in 2018, as they were defending 26 seats while Republicans were only defending nine. Democrats had to defend seats in 10 states Donald Trump (R) won. The GOP defended one Senate seat in a state Hillary Clinton (D) won.
Election forecasters considered Manchin to be among the most vulnerable incumbents in the U.S. Senate. Manchin was among 10 Democratic members of the U.S. Senate seeking re-election in 2018 from a state carried by Donald Trump (R) in the 2016 presidential election. Trump's 42 percent margin of victory over Hillary Clinton (D) in West Virginia was his second-largest nationwide. CNN listed this seat among 10 U.S. Senate seats it considered most likely to flip in 2018.
U.S. Senate election in West Virginia, General election (Manchin vs. Morrisey)
| Poll | Poll sponsor | Joe Manchin (D) | Patrick Morrisey (R) | Undecided/Other | Margin of Error | Sample Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College (October 28-31, 2018) | N/A | 47% | 42% | 11% | +/-3.2 | 1,013 |
| Research America (October 19-30, 2018) | The Metro News The Dominion Post | 45% | 40% | 16% | +/-4.9 | 400 |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (October 16-18, 2018) | National Republican Senatorial Committee | 42% | 44% | 15% | +/-4.0 | 600 |
| PopPolling Research (October 13-15, 2018) | N/A | 53% | 47% | 0% | +/-3.5 | 789 |
| Strategic Research Associates, LLC (October 12-19, 2018) | Gray Television | 52% | 36% | 12% | +/-3.8 | 650 |
U.S. Senate election in West Virginia, General election (Manchin vs. Morrisey)
| Poll | Poll sponsor | Joe Manchin (D) | Patrick Morrisey (R) | Undecided/Other | Margin of Error | Sample Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Polling Company (October 11-13, 2018) | Citizens United Political Victory Fund | 49% | 45% | 5% | +/-4.0 | 600 |
| Public Opinion Strategies (October 7-9, 2018) | National Republican Senatorial Committee and the Morrisey campaign | 41% | 40% | 19% | +/-4.0 | 600 |
| The Tarrance Group (September 23-25, 2018) | 47% | 43% | 10% | +/-4.1 | 612 | |
| Global Strategy Group (September 19-23, 2018) | 48% | 36% | 16% | +/-4.0 | 601 | |
| Strategic Research Associates, LLC (September 17-26, 2018) | 46% | 38% | 16% | +/-3.8 | 650 | |
| 1892 Polling (September 24-25, 2018) | 45% | 45% | 10% | +/-4.4 | 500 | |
| Harper Polling (August 23-26, 2018) | 47% | 41% | 12% | +/-4.0 | 600 | |
| MetroNews Dominion Post (August 16-26, 2018) | 46% | 38% | 16% | +/-4.9 | 404 | |
| Trafalgar Group (July 13-16, 2018) | 50% | 40% | 10% | +/-2.9 | 1,158 | |
| Monmouth University (June 14-19, 2018) | 49% | 42% | 9% | +/-3.8 | 653 | |
| Public Policy Polling (June 12-13, 2018) | 49% | 42% | 9% | +/-3.9 | 633 | |
| Global Strategy Group May 13-16, 2018 | 50% | 42% | 8% | +/-4.0 | 600 | |
| WPA Intelligence May 10, 2018 | 44% | 46% | 10% | +/-4.9 | 400 |
U.S. Senate election in West Virginia, General election (Manchin, Morrisey, and Blankenship)
| Poll | Joe Manchin (D) | Patrick Morrisey (R) | Don Blankenship | Undecided/Other | Margin of Error | Sample Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monmouth University (June 14-19, 2018) | 48% | 39% | 4% | 8% | +/-3.8 | 653 |
| Public Policy Polling (June 12-13, 2018) | 46% | 35% | 11% | 7% | +/-3.9 | 633 |
U.S. Senate general election in West Virginia, Mountain State Polls
| Poll | Joe Manchin | Evan Jenkins | Alex Mooney | Patrick Morrisey | Undecided/Other | Margin of error | Sample size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Zogby Poll, Joe Manchin vs. Evan Jenkins (September 27-30, 2017) | 49% | 36% | 0% | 0% | 15% | +/-5.5 | 320 |
| The Zogby Poll, Joe Manchin vs. Alex Mooney (September 27-30, 2017) | 49% | 0% | 35% | 0% | 17% | +/-5.5 | 320 |
| The Zogby Poll, Joe Manchin vs. Patrick Morrisey (September 27-30, 2017) | 45% | 0% | 0% | 38% | 17% | +/-5.5 | 320 |
| MetroNews West Virginia, Joe Manchin vs. Evan Jenkins (August 11-20, 2017) | 50% | 40% | 0% | 0% | 11% | +/-4.9 | 400 |
| MetroNews West Virginia, Joe Manchin vs. Patrick Morrisey (August 11-20, 2017) | 51% | 0% | 0% | 37% | 11% | +/-4.9 | 400 |
| The Mountain State Poll, Joe Manchin vs. Evan Jenkins (March 24-29, 2017) | 52% | 28% | 0% | 0% | 20% | +/-4.89 | 402 |
| The Mountain State Poll, Joe Manchin vs. Patrick Morrisey (March 24-29, 2017) | 51% | 0% | 0% | 29% | 20% | +/-4.89 | 402 |
| AVERAGES | 49.57% | 14.86% | 5% | 14.86% | 15.86% | +/-5.15 | 366.29 |
U.S. Senate election in West Virginia, Republican primary
| Poll | Patrick Morrisey (R) | Evan Jenkins (R) | Don Blankenship (R) | Undecided/Other | Margin of Error | Sample Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Opinion Strategies (commissioned by Morrisey) April 22-23, 2018 | 28% | 26% | 15% | 18% | +/-4.4 | 500 |
| Fox News April 18-22, 2018 | 21% | 25% | 16% | 39% | +/-3.0 | 985 |
| GOPAC April 17-19, 2018 | 24% | 20% | 12% | 44% | +/-4.9 | 411 |
| Harper Polling March 2018 | 19% | 29% | 27% | 23% | +/-4.4 | 500 |
| Osage Research March 2018 | 24% | 17% | 22% | 37% | +/-4.4 | 500 |
| Harper Polling February 5-6, 2018 | 25% | 33% | 18% | 24% | +/-4.4 | 500 |
| Fabrizio, Lee and Associates October 19-22, 2017 | 40% | 34% | 0% | 26% | +/-4.9 | 400 |
The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.
| Name | Party | Receipts* | Disbursements** | Cash on hand | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Manchin III | Democratic Party | $8,420,592 | $7,802,323 | $2,290,829 | As of December 31, 2018 |
| Patrick Morrisey | Republican Party | $6,200,877 | $6,153,109 | $47,768 | As of December 31, 2018 |
| Rusty Hollen | Libertarian Party | $0 | $0 | $0 | Data not available |
|
Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2018.
* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee." |
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U.S. Senate, West Virginia General Election, 2014
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican |  Shelley Moore Capito |
62.1% | 281,820 | |
| Democratic | Natalie Tennant | 34.5% | 156,360 | |
| Libertarian | John Buckley | 1.6% | 7,409 | |
| Constitution | Phil Hudok | 0.6% | 2,566 | |
| Mountain | Bob Henry Baber | 1.2% | 5,504 | |
| N/A | Write-ins | 0% | 30 | |
| Total Votes | 453,689 | |||
| Source: U.S. House Clerk "2014 Election Statistics" | ||||
U.S. Senate, West Virginia General Election, 2012
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Joe Manchin III Incumbent |
60.6% | 399,898 | |
| Republican | John R. Raese | 36.5% | 240,787 | |
| Mountain | Bob Henry Baber | 3% | 19,517 | |
| Total Votes | 660,202 | |||
| Source: U.S. House Clerk "2012 Election Statistics" | ||||
Demographic data for West Virginia
| West Virginia | U.S. | |
|---|---|---|
| Total population: | 1,841,053 | 316,515,021 |
| Land area (sq mi): | 24,038 | 3,531,905 |
| Gender | ||
| Female: | 50.7% | 50.8% |
| Race and ethnicity** | ||
| White: | 93.6% | 73.6% |
| Black/African American: | 3.3% | 12.6% |
| Asian: | 0.7% | 5.1% |
| Native American: | 0.2% | 0.8% |
| Pacific Islander: | 0% | 0.2% |
| Two or more: | 2% | 3% |
| Hispanic/Latino: | 1.4% | 17.1% |
| Education | ||
| High school graduation rate: | 85% | 86.7% |
| College graduation rate: | 19.2% | 29.8% |
| Income | ||
| Median household income: | $41,751 | $53,889 |
| Persons below poverty level: | 22.2% | 11.3% |
| Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015) for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in West Virginia. | ||
As of July 2016, West Virginia's three largest cities were Charleston (pop. est. 49,138), Huntington (pop. est. 48,113), and Morgantown (pop. est. 30,855).
