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Freshman Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) defeated Rep. Beto O'Rourke (D-Texas) and entrepreneur Neal Dikeman (L) in the general election for U.S. Senate in Texas on November 6, 2018.
Thirty-five of the 100 seats in the United States Senate were up for election in 2018, including two seats up for special election. Republicans gained four previously Democratic-held seats and Democrats gained two previously Republican-held seats, resulting in a net gain of two seats for the Republican Party and a 53-seat majority in the chamber. This race was identified as a 2018 battleground that might have affected partisan control of the chamber in the 116th Congress. At the time of the election, Republicans held a 51-seat Senate majority. Democrats held 47 seats, and the two independents caucused with them. Democrats faced greater partisan risk in 2018, as they were defending 26 seats while Republicans were only defending nine. Democrats had to defend seats in 10 states Donald Trump (R) won. The GOP defended one Senate seat in a state Hillary Clinton (D) won.
Although Texas had voted to send a Republican to the White House, U.S. Senate, and governor’s office in every statewide election since 1994, two election forecasters called this race a Toss-up or Leans Republican. Cruz won his first term in 2012, defeating former state Rep. Paul Sadler (D) by 16 percentage points, 57 percent to 41 percent.
“If this race looks different than the rest, that’s probably because it is a strong Democratic challenger raising prolific sums of money and tons of earned media," said Lyceum Poll Research Director Josh Blank.
U.S. Senate election in Texas, General election: Cruz vs. O'Rourke
| Poll | Poll sponsor |  Cruz |
 O'Rourke | Other/Undecided | Margin of error | Sample size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trafalgar Group November 3-5, 2018 | N/A | 52% | 43% | 5% | +/-2.1 | 2,135 |
| Emerson October 28-30, 2018 | N/A | 50% | 47% | 2% | +/-3.7 | 781 |
| UT Tyler Polling Center October 15-28, 2018 | N/A | 46% | 39% | 15% | +/-3.0 | 1,033 |
| Quinnipiac University October 22-28, 2018 | N/A | 51% | 46% | 3% | +/-3.5 | 1,078 |
| CBS 11/Dixie Strategies October 25-26, 2018 | N/A | 52% | 42% | 5% | +/-4.0 | 588 |
| University of Texas/Texas Tribune October 15-21, 2018 | N/A | 51% | 45% | 4% | +/-3.2 | 927 |
| GBA Strategies October 18-21, 2018 | End Citizens United | 50% | 46% | 4% | +/-3.2 | 1,298 |
| Reuters October 12-18, 2018 | N/A | 49% | 44% | 7% | +/-3.2 | 1,298 |
| CNN/SRSS October 9-13, 2018 | N/A | 52% | 45% | 3% | +/-4.5 | 716 |
| WPA Intelligence October 8-13, 2018 | Club for Growth Action | 52% | 43% | 5% | +/-3.5 | 801 |
| New York Times/Siena College October 8-11, 2018 | N/A | 51% | 43% | 6% | +/-3.6 | 800 |
| Quinnipiac University October 3-9, 2018 | N/A | 54% | 45% | 2% | +/-4.4 | 730 |
| CBS News/YouGov October 2-5, 2018 | N/A | 50% | 44% | 6% | +/-4.2 | 881 |
| Emerson October 1-5, 2018 | N/A | 47% | 42% | 11% | +/-4.5 | 500 |
| AVERAGES | 50.5% | 43.86% | 5.57% | +/-3.61 | 969 |
U.S. Senate election in Texas, General election: Cruz vs. O'Rourke
| Poll | Poll sponsor | Ted Cruz (R) | Beto O'Rourke (D) | Other/Undecided | Margin of Error | Sample Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling September 19-20, 2018 | Protect Our Care | 48% | 45% | 7% | +/-4.0 | 613 |
| Quinnipiac University September 11-17, 2018 | N/A | 54% | 45% | 1% | +/-4.1 | 807 |
| Reuters/Ipsos/UVA Center for Politics September 6-14, 2018 | N/A | 45% | 47% | 8% | +/-4.0 | 992 |
| CBS 11/Dixie Strategies Poll September 6-7, 2018 | N/A | 46% | 42% | 11% | +/-4.3 | 519 |
| NBC News/Marist August 12-16, 2018 | N/A | 49% | 45% | 6% | +/-3.8 | 759 |
| Public Policy Polling August 2-3, 2018 | N/A | 46% | 42% | 12% | +/-3.5 | 797 |
| Quinnipiac University July 26-31, 2018 | N/A | 49% | 43% | 7% | +/-3.5 | 1,118 |
| Lyceum July 9-26, 2018 | N/A | 36% | 34% | 27% | +/-3.45 | 806 |
| Gravis Marketing July 3-7, 2018 | N/A | 51% | 42% | 7% | +/-4.0 | 602 |
| CBS News/YouGov June 19-22, 2018 | N/A | 44% | 36% | 20% | +/-3.6 | 1,030 |
| University of Texas/Texas Tribune June 8-17, 2018 | N/A | 41% | 36% | 22% | +/-2.8 | 1,200 |
| Greenberg Quinlan Rosner May 20-June 5, 2018 | End Citizens United | 49% | 43% | 8% | +/-3.1 | 1,000 |
| Quinnipiac University May 23-29, 2018 | N/A | 50% | 39% | 11% | +/-3.8 | 961 |
| Public Policy Polling May 21-22, 2018 | Giffords | 48% | 42% | 10% | +/-3.3 | 861 |
| JMC Analytics May 19-21, 2018 | Red Metrics Group | 47% | 40% | 13% | +/-4.1 | 575 |
| Quinnipiac University April 12-17, 2018 | N/A | 47% | 44% | 9% | +/-3.6 | 1,029 |
| Public Policy Polling January 17-18, 2018 | End Citizens United | 45% | 37% | 18% | +/-3.6 | 757 |
The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.
| Name | Party | Receipts* | Disbursements** | Cash on hand | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beto O'Rourke | Democratic Party | $80,338,144 | $80,450,313 | $286,531 | As of December 31, 2018 |
| Ted Cruz | Republican Party | $35,409,077 | $39,458,810 | $157,959 | As of December 31, 2018 |
| Neal Dikeman | Libertarian Party | $33,732 | $33,398 | $333 | As of December 31, 2018 |
|
Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2018.
* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee." |
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U.S. Senate, Texas General Election, 2014
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican |  John Cornyn Incumbent |
61.6% | 2,861,531 | |
| Democratic | David Alameel | 34.4% | 1,597,387 | |
| Libertarian | Rebecca Paddock | 2.9% | 133,751 | |
| Green | Emily Marie Sanchez | 1.2% | 54,701 | |
| Write-in | Mohammed Tahiro | 0% | 988 | |
| Total Votes | 4,648,358 | |||
| Source: U.S. House Clerk "2014 Election Statistics" | ||||
U.S. Senate, Texas General Election, 2012
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Ted Cruz |
56.5% | 4,440,137 | |
| Democratic | Paul Sadler | 40.6% | 3,194,927 | |
| Libertarian | John Jay Myers | 2.1% | 162,354 | |
| Green | David B. Collins | 0.9% | 67,404 | |
| Total Votes | 7,864,822 | |||
| Source: Texas Secretary of State "Official Election Results, 2012 General Election" | ||||
Demographic data for Texas
| Texas | U.S. | |
|---|---|---|
| Total population: | 27,429,639 | 316,515,021 |
| Land area (sq mi): | 261,232 | 3,531,905 |
| Gender | ||
| Female: | 50.4% | 50.8% |
| Race and ethnicity** | ||
| White: | 74.9% | 73.6% |
| Black/African American: | 11.9% | 12.6% |
| Asian: | 4.2% | 5.1% |
| Native American: | 0.5% | 0.8% |
| Pacific Islander: | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| Two or more: | 2.5% | 3% |
| Hispanic/Latino: | 38.4% | 17.1% |
| Education | ||
| High school graduation rate: | 81.9% | 86.7% |
| College graduation rate: | 27.6% | 29.8% |
| Income | ||
| Median household income: | $53,207 | $53,889 |
| Persons below poverty level: | 19.9% | 11.3% |
| Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015) for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Texas. | ||
As of July 2016, Texas had a population of approximately 27,862,596 people, and its three largest cities were Houston (pop. est. 2.3 million), San Antonio (pop. est. 1.5 million), and Dallas (pop. est. 1.3 million).
