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Sitting Gov. Tom Wolf (D) defeated former state Sen. Scott Wagner (R) in the general election for governor of Pennsylvania on November 6, 2018.
Although Wolf was first elected by a margin of 10 percentage points in 2014, Donald Trump (R) carried the state in the 2016 presidential election. The previous four presidential elections were won by the Democratic candidate, with Barack Obama (D) earning the largest victory margin at 10 percent in 2008. The narrowest was Trump's one percent margin in 2016.
The previous 10 gubernatorial elections were also split: Republican and Democratic candidates each won five.
A Republican victory could have shifted Pennsylvania from a divided government to a Republican trifecta with Republicans controlling both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office. Three race raters called the race Likely Democratic.
The winner of this election stood to influence the state's redistricting process following the 2020 census. Under Pennsylvania state law, the state legislature is responsible for drawing new maps for U.S. House seats following the completion of the census. The governor has the power to veto these district map proposals. The governor may not veto district map proposals for state legislative seats, which are drawn by a political commission.
Governor of Pennsylvania, 2018
| Poll | Poll sponsor |  Tom Wolf |
 Scott Wagner | Undecided/Other | Margin of error | Sample size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Franklin & Marshall University September 17-23, 2018 | N/A | 52% | 30% | 18% | +/-6.1 | 545 |
| Reuters/Ipsos/UVA Center for Politics September 12-19, 2018 | N/A | 55% | 38% | 8% | +/-3.4 | 1,080 |
| Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion September 13-19, 2018 | N/A | 55% | 36% | 9% | +/-5.5 | 404 |
| Rasmussen Reports September 12-13, 2018 | N/A | 52% | 40% | 8% | +/-3.5 | 800 |
| Marist College August 12-16, 2018 | NBC News | 54% | 40% | 6% | +/-4.2 | 713 |
| Suffolk University June 21-25, 2018 | N/A | 47% | 36% | 15% | +/-4.4 | 500 |
| AVERAGES | 52.5% | 36.67% | 10.67% | +/-4.52 | 673.67 |
| Pennsylvania Governor, 2018 (Wolf vs. Ellsworth hypothetical matchup) | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poll | Tom Wolf (D) | Laura Ellsworth (R) | Undecided/Other | Margin of error | Sample size | |||||||||
| Muhlenberg College (April 4-12, 2018) | 46% | 26% | 28% | +/-5.5 | 414 | |||||||||
| Franklin & Marshall College (March 19-26, 2018) | 51% | 22% | 27% | +/-6.8 | 423 | |||||||||
| AVERAGES | 48.5% | 24% | 27.5% | +/-6.15 | 418.5 | |||||||||
| Pennsylvania Governor, 2018 (Wolf vs. Mango hypothetical matchup) | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poll | Tom Wolf (D) | Paul Mango (R) | Undecided/Other | Margin of error | Sample size | |||||||||
| Muhlenberg College (April 4-12, 2018) | 47% | 27% | 27% | +/-5.5 | 414 | |||||||||
| Franklin & Marshall College (March 19-26, 2018) | 49% | 22% | 29% | +/-6.8 | 423 | |||||||||
| AVERAGES | 48% | 24.5% | 28% | +/-6.15 | 418.5 | |||||||||
| Pennsylvania Governor, 2018 (Wolf vs. Wagner hypothetical matchup) | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poll | Tom Wolf (D) | Scott Wagner (R) | Undecided/Other | Margin of error | Sample size | |||||||||
| Muhlenberg College (April 4-12, 2018) | 47% | 31% | 21% | +/-5.5 | 414 | |||||||||
| Franklin & Marshall College (March 19-26, 2018) | 38% | 21% | 41% | +/-6.8 | 423 | |||||||||
| AVERAGES | 42.5% | 26% | 31% | +/-6.15 | 418.5 | |||||||||
The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage. Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.
Race ratings: Pennsylvania gubernatorial election, 2018
| Race tracker | Race ratings | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 5, 2018 | October 30, 2018 | October 23, 2018 | October 16, 2018 | |
| The Cook Political Report | Likely Democratic | Likely Democratic | Likely Democratic | Likely Democratic |
| Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales | Likely Democratic | Likely Democratic | Likely Democratic | Likely Democratic |
| Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball | Safe Democratic | Safe Democratic | Safe Democratic | Safe Democratic |
Democrats Tom Wolf and Mike Stack won election on November 4, 2014.
Governor and Lieutenant Governor of Pennsylvania, 2014
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic |  Tom Wolf/Mike Stack |
54.9% | 1,920,355 | |
| Republican | Tom Corbett/Jim Cawley Incumbent | 45.1% | 1,575,511 | |
| Total Votes | 3,495,866 | |||
| Election results via Pennsylvania Department of State | ||||
On November 2, 2010, Tom Corbett/Jim Cawley won election to the office of governor/lt. gov. of Pennsylvania. They defeated Dan Onorato/H. Scott Conklin in the general election.
governor/lt. gov. of Pennsylvania, 2010
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Tom Corbett/Jim Cawley |
54.5% | 2,172,763 | |
| Democratic | Dan Onorato/H. Scott Conklin | 45.5% | 1,814,788 | |
| Total Votes | 3,987,551 | |||
| Election results via Pennsylvania Department of State. | ||||
On November 7, 2006, Ed Rendell/Catherine Baker Knoll won re-election to the office of Governor/Lt. Gov. of Pennsylvania. They defeated Lynn Swann/Jim Matthews in the general election.
Governor/Lt. Gov. of Pennsylvania, 2006
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Ed Rendell/Catherine Baker Knoll Incumbent |
60.4% | 2,470,517 | |
| Republican | Lynn Swann/Jim Matthews | 39.6% | 1,622,135 | |
| Total Votes | 4,092,652 | |||
| Election results via Pennsylvania Department of State. | ||||
On November 5, 2002, Ed Rendell/Catherine Baker Knoll won election to the office of Governor/Lt. Gov. of Pennsylvania. They defeated Mike Fisher/Jane M. Earll, Ken V. Krawchuk/Henry E. Haller and Michael Morrill/Vicki J. Smedley in the general election.
Governor/Lt. Gov. of Pennsylvania, 2002
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Ed Rendell/Catherine Baker Knoll |
53.4% | 1,913,235 | |
| Republican | Mike Fisher/Jane M. Earll | 44.4% | 1,589,408 | |
| Libertarian | Ken V. Krawchuk/Henry E. Haller | 1.1% | 40,923 | |
| Green | Michael Morrill/Vicki J. Smedley | 1.1% | 38,423 | |
| Total Votes | 3,581,989 | |||
| Election results via Pennsylvania Department of State. | ||||
Demographic data for Pennsylvania
| Pennsylvania | U.S. | |
|---|---|---|
| Total population: | 12,791,904 | 316,515,021 |
| Land area (sq mi): | 44,743 | 3,531,905 |
| Gender | ||
| Female: | 51.1% | 50.8% |
| Race and ethnicity** | ||
| White: | 81.6% | 73.6% |
| Black/African American: | 11% | 12.6% |
| Asian: | 3.1% | 5.1% |
| Native American: | 0.2% | 0.8% |
| Pacific Islander: | 0% | 0.2% |
| Two or more: | 2.1% | 3% |
| Hispanic/Latino: | 6.4% | 17.1% |
| Education | ||
| High school graduation rate: | 89.2% | 86.7% |
| College graduation rate: | 28.6% | 29.8% |
| Income | ||
| Median household income: | $53,599 | $53,889 |
| Persons below poverty level: | 15.9% | 11.3% |
| Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015) for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Pennsylvania. | ||
As of July 2017, Pennsylvania had a population of approximately 12,800,000 people, with its three largest cities being Philadelphia (pop. est. 1.6 million), Pittsburgh (pop. est. 300,000), and Allentown (pop. est. 120,000).
