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Gov. Kate Brown (D) defeated state Rep. Knute Buehler (R) and four others in the November 6, 2018, general election for governor of Oregon.
Brown was appointed as governor in 2015 and elected to maintain the position in 2016 with 51 percent of the vote, an 8-point margin over her Republican opponent. Going into the 2018 election, Oregon hadn't had a Republican governor since 1987.
As of 2018, the last time Oregon voted for a Republican presidential candidate was 1984 and for a Republican senator, 2002. From 1999 to 2018, 80 percent of the state's representatives in the U.S. House were Democrats.
Tim Craig of The Washington Post discussed Oregon's 2018 gubernatorial race in the context of other blue states like Vermont, Massachusetts, and Maryland, saying those states had popular moderate Republican governors in 2018. Buehler ran as a moderate in Oregon.
The Republican Governors Association contributed more than $2 million to Buehler's campaign through mid-October 2018, and the Democratic Governors Association contributed more than $650,000 to Brown. Six weeks ahead of the November election, the candidates had raised more money than candidates in any other gubernatorial race in Oregon history.
At stake was the state's trifecta status. With Brown's win and Democrats' continued control of the state House and Senate, the Democratic Party maintained trifecta status in Oregon following the 2018 election.
Buehler and Brown competed against one another in the 2012 Oregon secretary of state election, which Brown won by 8 points.
Third-party candidates in the race included Aaron Auer (Constitution Party), Nick Chen (Libertarian), and Chris Henry (Progressive Party). Patrick Starnes (Independent Party of Oregon) withdrew from the race on October 30, 2018, and endorsed Brown, but he still appeared on the ballot.
The winner of this election stood to influence the state's redistricting process following the 2020 census. Under Oregon state law, the governor is permitted to veto the state legislature's proposals for congressional and state legislative district maps.
Oregon was one of 36 states that held an election for governor in 2018. Democrats gained seven previously Republican-held seats, and Republicans gained one previously independent-held seat. Heading into the 2018 elections, there were 16 Democratic governors, 33 Republican governors, and one independent governor. In 2018, 26 of the 33 states with a Republican governor held a gubernatorial election, while nine out of the 16 states with a Democratic governor held a gubernatorial election. Seventeen of the 36 seats up for election were open seats (four Democratic, 12 Republican, and one independent), meaning that the sitting governor was not seeking re-election.
Oregon governor 2018, general election, Brown v. Buehler v. Auer v. Chen c. Starnes
| Poll | Poll sponsor | Kate Brown (D) | Knute Buehler (R) | Aaron Auer (C) | Nick Chen (L) | Patrick Starnes (I) | Undecided | Margin of error | Sample size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hoffman Research Group October 29-30, 2018 | N/A | 45% | 42% | 1% | 1% | 4% | 7% | +/-3.7 | 694 |
| DHM Research October 4-11, 2018 | Oregon Public Broadcasting | 40% | 35% | 1% | 1% | 4% | 17% | +/-4.4 | 500 |
| Riley Research Associates Sept. 24-Oct. 7, 2018 | KGW/The Oregonian | 49% | 45% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 0% | +/-5.2 | 356 |
| Hoffman Research Group September 12-13, 2018 | N/A | 46% | 36% | 1% | 1% | 4% | 12% | +/-3.8 | 680 |
| AVERAGES | 45% | 39.5% | 1% | 1.25% | 4% | 9% | +/-4.28 | 557.5 |
Oregon governor 2018, general election, Brown v. Buehler
| Poll | Kate Brown (D) | Knute Buehler (R) | Undecided | Margin of error | Sample size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College October 26-28, 2018 | 47% | 42% | 4% | +/-3.7 | 747 |
| Gravis July 16-17, 2018 | 45% | 45% | 10% | +/-3.5 | 770 |
| AVERAGES | 46% | 43.5% | 7% | +/-3.6 | 758.5 |
Oregon governor 2018, hypothetical match-up
| Poll | Kate Brown (D) | Knute Buehler (R) | Undecided/Other | Margin of error | Sample size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DHM Research/Oregon Public Broadcasting January 25-31, 2018 | 46% | 29% | 25% | +/-4.0 | 604 |
The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage. Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.
Race ratings: Oregon gubernatorial election, 2018
| Race tracker | Race ratings | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 5, 2018 | October 30, 2018 | October 23, 2018 | October 16, 2018 | |
| The Cook Political Report | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up | Lean Democratic |
| Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales | Tilt Democratic | Lean Democratic | Lean Democratic | Lean Democratic |
| Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball | Toss-up | Toss-up | Lean Democratic | Lean Democratic |
Oregon held a special election for governor in 2016
Incumbent Kate Brown defeated Bud Pierce, Cliff Thomason, James Foster, and Aaron Auer in the Oregon governor election.Oregon Governor, 2016
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic/Working Families |  Kate Brown Incumbent |
50.70% | 985,027 | |
| Republican | Bud Pierce | 43.53% | 845,609 | |
| Independent Party of Oregon | Cliff Thomason | 2.44% | 47,481 | |
| Libertarian | James Foster | 2.33% | 45,191 | |
| Constitution Party | Aaron Auer | 1.00% | 19,400 | |
| Total Votes | 1,942,708 | |||
| Source: Oregon Secretary of State | ||||
Governor of Oregon, 2014
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | John Kitzhaber Incumbent |
49.9% | 733,230 | |
| Republican | Dennis Richardson | 44.1% | 648,542 | |
| Pacific Green | Jason Levin | 2% | 29,561 | |
| Libertarian | Paul Grad | 1.5% | 21,903 | |
| Constitution | Aaron Auer | 1.1% | 15,929 | |
| Progressive | Chris Henry | 0.9% | 13,898 | |
| Nonpartisan | Write-in votes | 0.5% | 6,654 | |
| Total Votes | 1,469,717 | |||
| Election results via Oregon Secretary of State | ||||
On November 2, 2010, John Kitzhaber won election to the office of Governor of Oregon. He defeated Chris Dudley, Wes Wagner and Greg Kord in the general election.
Governor of Oregon, 2010
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | John Kitzhaber |
49.3% | 716,525 | |
| Republican | Chris Dudley | 47.8% | 694,287 | |
| Constitution | Greg Kord | 1.4% | 20,475 | |
| Libertarian | Wes Wagner | 1.3% | 19,048 | |
| Miscellaneous | - | 0.2% | 3,213 | |
| Total Votes | 1,453,548 | |||
| Election results via Oregon Secretary of State. | ||||
Demographic data for Oregon
| Oregon | U.S. | |
|---|---|---|
| Total population: | 4,024,634 | 316,515,021 |
| Land area (sq mi): | 95,988 | 3,531,905 |
| Gender | ||
| Female: | 50.5% | 50.8% |
| Race and ethnicity** | ||
| White: | 85.1% | 73.6% |
| Black/African American: | 1.8% | 12.6% |
| Asian: | 4% | 5.1% |
| Native American: | 1.2% | 0.8% |
| Pacific Islander: | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Two or more: | 4.1% | 3% |
| Hispanic/Latino: | 12.3% | 17.1% |
| Education | ||
| High school graduation rate: | 89.8% | 86.7% |
| College graduation rate: | 30.8% | 29.8% |
| Income | ||
| Median household income: | $51,243 | $53,889 |
| Persons below poverty level: | 18.4% | 11.3% |
| Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015) for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Oregon. | ||
As of July 2016, Oregon's three largest cities were Portland (pop. est. 647,805), Salem (pop. est. 169,798), and Eugene (pop. est. 168,916).
