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Maine Attorney General Janet Mills (D) defeated businessman Shawn Moody (R) and State Treasurer Teresea Hayes (I) in the general election on November 6, 2018, for Maine's governorship.
Democrats won a trifecta in Maine by winning the governor's office and the Maine State Senate and holding the Maine House of Representatives. Heading into the election, Maine had been under divided government since 2012 when Democrats took control of the state House and the state Senate while Republican Paul LePage held the governorship. Republicans took control of the governorship in 2010 when LePage was first elected and took back control of the state Senate in 2014.
The winner of this election stood to influence the state's redistricting process following the 2020 census. Under Maine state law, the state legislature is responsible for drawing new maps for U.S. House and state legislative seats following the completion of the census. The governor has the power to veto these district map proposals.
LePage, who was term-limited, was first elected in 2010 with 37.6 percent of the vote. Former Carter administration aide Eliot R. Cutler (I) received 35.9 percent and state Sen. Elizabeth Mitchell (D) received 18.8 percent. In 2014, LePage was re-elected with 48.2 percent of the vote. U.S. Rep. Mike Michaud (D) received 43.4 percent and Cutler received 8.4 percent.
Of the 10 gubernatorial elections in Maine prior to 2018, five resulted in the seat changing hands. Prior to 2018, the last time a Maine gubernatorial election was won by a candidate who shared a party with the outgoing incumbent was in 1952 when Burton Cross (R) was elected to succeed Frederick Payne (R).
Businessman Alan Caron (I) withdrew from the race on October 29. Caron's name appeared on the ballot, but votes cast for him were counted as blank.
Maine was one of 36 states that held an election for governor in 2018. Democrats gained seven previously Republican-held seats, and Republicans gained one previously independent-held seat. Heading into the 2018 elections, there were 16 Democratic governors, 33 Republican governors, and one independent governor. In 2018, 26 of the 33 states with a Republican governor held a gubernatorial election, while nine out of the 16 states with a Democratic governor held a gubernatorial election. Seventeen of the 36 seats up for election were open seats (four Democratic, 12 Republican, and one independent), meaning that the sitting governor was not seeking re-election.
Maine Governor 2018
| Poll | Poll sponsor | Janet Mills (D) | Shawn Moody (R) | Alan Caron (I) | Teresea Hayes (I) | Undecided/Other | Margin of error | Sample size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slingshot Strategies (registered voters) (Nov. 1, 2018) | N/A | 55% | 38% | 0% | 7% | 0% | +/-4.0 | 518 |
| Emerson College (Oct. 27-29, 2018) | N/A | 50% | 42% | 0% | 0% | 8% | +/-3.5 | 900 |
| Pan Atlantic Research (Oct. 1-7, 2018) | N/A | 44% | 36% | 2% | 8% | 10% | +/-4.4 | 500 |
| Change Research (head to head between Mills and Moody) (Sept. 30-Oct. 1, 2018) | N/A | 52% | 44% | 0% | 0% | 4% | +/-3.0 | 801 |
| Slingshot Strategies (Caron excluded) (Sept. 26-30, 2018) | Hayes Campaign | 41% | 33% | 0% | 10% | 16% | +/-4.0 | 600 |
| Suffolk University (August 2-6, 2018) | N/A | 39% | 39% | 3% | 4% | 16% | +/-4.4 | 500 |
| AVERAGES | 46.83% | 38.67% | 0.83% | 4.83% | 9% | +/-3.88 | 636.5 |
The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage. Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.
Race ratings: Maine gubernatorial election, 2018
| Race tracker | Race ratings | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 5, 2018 | October 30, 2018 | October 23, 2018 | October 16, 2018 | |
| The Cook Political Report | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up |
| Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales | Tilt Democratic | Tilt Democratic | Tilt Democratic | Tilt Democratic |
| Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up |
Governor of Maine, 2014
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican |  Paul LePage Incumbent |
48.2% | 294,519 | |
| Democratic | Mike Michaud | 43.4% | 265,114 | |
| Independent | Eliot Cutler | 8.4% | 51,515 | |
| Nonpartisan | Write-in votes | 0% | 79 | |
| Total Votes | 611,227 | |||
| Election results via Maine Bureau of Corporations, Elections & Commissions | ||||
Governor of Maine, 2010
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Paul LePage |
37.6% | 218,065 | |
| Democratic | Elizabeth Mitchell | 18.8% | 109,387 | |
| Independent | Eliot R. Cutler | 35.9% | 208,270 | |
| Independent | Shawn H. Moody | 5% | 28,756 | |
| Independent | Kevin L. Scott | 1% | 5,664 | |
| Others | Various | 0.5% | 2,624 | |
| Blanks | - | 1.3% | 7,772 | |
| Total Votes | 580,538 | |||
| Election results via Maine Secretary of State | ||||
Demographic data for Maine
| Maine | U.S. | |
|---|---|---|
| Total population: | 1,329,453 | 316,515,021 |
| Land area (sq mi): | 30,843 | 3,531,905 |
| Gender | ||
| Female: | 51.1% | 50.8% |
| Race and ethnicity** | ||
| White: | 95% | 73.6% |
| Black/African American: | 1.1% | 12.6% |
| Asian: | 1.1% | 5.1% |
| Native American: | 0.6% | 0.8% |
| Pacific Islander: | 0% | 0.2% |
| Two or more: | 2% | 3% |
| Hispanic/Latino: | 1.5% | 17.1% |
| Education | ||
| High school graduation rate: | 91.6% | 86.7% |
| College graduation rate: | 29% | 29.8% |
| Income | ||
| Median household income: | $49,331 | $53,889 |
| Persons below poverty level: | 16.6% | 11.3% |
| Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015) for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Maine. | ||
As of July 2016, Maine's three largest cities were Portland (pop. est. 65,000), Lewiston (pop. est. 35,000), and Bangor (pop. est. 30,000).
