Term-limited Gov. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) defeated three-term incumbent Sen. Bill Nelson (D) in the general election for the U.S. Senate in Florida on November 6, 2018.

Thirty-five of the 100 seats in the United States Senate were up for election in 2018, including two seats up for special election. Republicans gained four previously Democratic-held seats and Democrats gained two previously Republican-held seats, resulting in a net gain of two seats for the Republican Party and a 53-seat majority in the chamber. This race was identified as a 2018 battleground that might have affected partisan control of the chamber in the 116th Congress. At the time of the election, Republicans held a 51-seat Senate majority. Democrats held 47 seats, and the two independents caucused with them. Democrats faced greater partisan risk in 2018, as they were defending 26 seats while Republicans were only defending nine. Democrats had to defend seats in 10 states Donald Trump (R) won. The GOP defended one Senate seat in a state Hillary Clinton (D) won.

Elections forecasters called this race a toss-up. While Nelson won his re-election bid in 2012 by a margin of 13 points against Rep. Connie Mack (R)—55 percent to 42 percent—other statewide races, including presidential elections, were closely contested. Donald Trump (R) won the 2016 presidential election in Florida by 1.2 percentage points, while Barack Obama (D) won the state in the 2012 election by 0.9 percentage points and the 2008 election by 2.8 percentage points. Nelson was the only Democrat elected to statewide office in Florida, at the time of the election.

According to Matt Dixon and Marc Caputo of Politico, the election tested "the limits of whether a close alliance with President Donald Trump is political poison or a pathway to success in the nation’s biggest swing state."

Polls

U.S. Senate election in Florida, General election

Poll	Poll sponsor	Nelson	Scott	Undecided/Other	Margin of error	Sample size
St. Pete Polls November 3-4, 2018	FloridaPolitics.com	50%	46%	4%	+/-1.8	3,088
Quinnipiac University October 29-November 4, 2018	N/A	51%	44%	5%	+/-3.5	1,142
St. Pete Polls November 1-2, 2018	FloridaPolitics.com	48%	49%	3%	+/-1.9	2,733
Marist College October 30-November 2, 2018	N/A	50%	46%	4%	+/-5.0	595
Gravis Marketing October 29-November 2, 2018	N/A	48%	46%	6%	+/-3.6	753
AVERAGES		49.4%	46.2%	4.4%	+/-3.16	1,662.2

U.S. Senate election in Florida, October 17-31, 2018

Poll	Poll sponsor	Nelson	Scott	Undecided/Other	Margin of error	Sample size
St. Pete Polls October 30-31, 2018	FloridaPolitics.com	49%	47%	3%	+/-2.0	2,470
Vox Populi Polling October 27-30, 2018	N/A	50%	50%	0%	+/-3.7	696
Trafalgar Group October 29-30, 2018	N/A	49%	47%	4%	+/-1.9	2,543
Cygnal October 27-29, 2018	N/A	50%	48%	2%	+/-4.4	495
CNN/SSRS October 24-29, 2018	N/A	49%	47%	4%	+/-4.3	781
Suffolk University/USA TODAY October 25-28, 2018	N/A	45%	43%	12%	+/-4.4	500
Reuters/Ipsos/UVA Center for Politics October 17-25, 2018	N/A	49%	44%	4%	+/-3.4	1,069
AVERAGES		48.71%	46.57%	4.14%	+/-3.44	1,222

U.S. Senate election in Florida, October 14-27, 2018

Poll	Poll sponsor	Nelson	Scott	Undecided/Other	Margin of error	Sample size
New York Times/Siena College October 23-27, 2018	N/A	48%	44%	8%	+/-4.0	737
CBS News/YouGov October 23-26, 2018	N/A	46%	46%	8%	+/-4.0	991
Florida Atlantic University October 18-21, 2018	N/A	41%	42%	17%	+/-3.6	704
Strategic Research Associates October 16-23, 2018	Gray Television	46%	45%	9%	+/-3.5	800
St. Pete Polls October 20-21, 2018	N/A	48%	49%	3%	+/-2.5	1,575
SurveyUSA/Spectrum News October 18-21, 2018	N/A	49%	41%	10%	+/-5.0	665
Quinipiac University October 17-21, 2018	N/A	52%	46%	2%	+/-3.5	1,161
SSRS October 16-20, 2018	CNN	50%	45%	4%	+/-4.2	759
OnMessage Inc. October 14-18, 2018	N/A	46%	51%	3%	+/-2.1	2,200
AVERAGES		47.33%	45.44%	7.11%	+/-3.6	1,065.78

U.S. Senate election in Florida, General election

Campaign finance

The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Election history

2016

The race for Florida's U.S. Senate seat was one of nine competitive battleground races in 2016 that that helped Republicans maintain control of the Senate. Incumbent Sen. Marco Rubio (R) defeated U.S. Rep. Patrick Murphy (D), Iraq war veteran Paul Stanton (L), and nine independent and write-in candidates in the general election, which took place on November 8, 2016. According to Politico, Rubio was “the first Republican senator from the Sunshine State ever to win reelection in a presidential election year.”

The heated race was full of personal attacks. Rubio called Murphy "hyper-partisan," "a rubber stamp for, God forbid, a Clinton presidency," and accused him of fabricating his qualifications. A CBS Miami report questioned Murphy's claims of being a certified public accountant and small business owner. Murphy's campaign called the report "deeply false."

Murphy attacked Rubio for missing votes and abandoning Florida voters while campaigning for president. During an interview, he said, "Sen. Rubio has the worst vote attendance record of any Florida senator in nearly 50 years," a statement PolitiFact rated as "mostly true." He also accused Rubio of being a political opportunist. Murphy's spokeswoman Galia Slayen said, "Marco Rubio is willing to abandon his responsibility to Floridians and hand over our country's national security to Donald Trump, as long as it advances his own political career."

In his victory speech, Rubio said, “[I] hope that I and my colleagues as we return to work in Washington D.C. can set a better example how political discourse should exist in this country. And I know people feel betrayed and you have a right to. Every major institution in our society has failed us — the media, the government, big business, Wall Street, academia — they have all failed us. So people are so frustrated and angry. But we must channel that anger and frustration into something positive. Let it move us forward as energy to confront and solve our challenges and our problems.”

U.S. Senate, Florida General Election, 2016

Party	Candidate	Vote %	Votes
	Republican	Marco Rubio Incumbent	52%	4,835,191
	Democratic	Patrick Murphy	44.3%	4,122,088
	Libertarian	Paul Stanton	2.1%	196,956
	Independent	Bruce Nathan	0.6%	52,451
	Independent	Tony Khoury	0.5%	45,820
	Independent	Steven Machat	0.3%	26,918
	Independent	Basil Dalack	0.2%	22,236
	N/A	Write-in	0%	160
Total Votes			9,301,820
Source: Florida Division of Elections

U.S. Senate, Florida Republican Primary, 2016

Candidate	Vote %	Votes
Marco Rubio Incumbent	72%	1,029,830
Carlos Beruff	18.5%	264,427
Dwight Young	6.4%	91,082
Ernie Rivera	3.2%	45,153
Total Votes		1,430,492
Source: Florida Division of Elections

U.S. Senate, Florida Democratic Primary, 2016

Candidate	Vote %	Votes
Patrick Murphy	58.9%	665,985
Alan Grayson	17.7%	199,929
Pam Keith	15.4%	173,919
Roque De La Fuente	5.4%	60,810
Reginald Luster	2.6%	29,138
Total Votes		1,129,781
Source: Florida Division of Elections

U.S. Senate, Florida Libertarian Primary, 2016

Candidate	Vote %	Votes
Paul Stanton	73.5%	2,946
Augustus Invictus Sol	26.5%	1,063
Total Votes		4,009
Source: Florida Division of Elections

2012

On November 6, 2012, Bill Nelson won re-election to the United States Senate. He defeated Connie Mack (R), Bill Gaylor (I), and Chris Borgia (I) in the general election.

U.S. Senate, Florida General Election, 2012

Party	Candidate	Vote %	Votes
	Democratic	Bill Nelson Incumbent	55.2%	4,523,451
	Republican	Connie Mack	42.2%	3,458,267
	Independent	Bill Gaylor	1.5%	126,079
	Independent	Chris Borgia	1%	82,089
	N/A	Write-ins	0%	60
Total Votes			8,189,946
Source: Florida Election Watch "U.S. Senator"

Demographics

Demographic data for Florida

As of July 2017, Florida's three largest cities were Jacksonville (pop. est. 860,000), Miami (pop. est. 430,000), and Tampa (pop. est. 360,000).