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Nonprofit director Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D) defeated incumbent U.S. Rep. Carlos Curbelo (R) in the general election for Florida's 26th Congressional District on November 6, 2018.
All 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives were up for election in 2018. The Democratic Party gained a net total of 40 seats, winning control of the chamber. This race was identified as a 2018 battleground that might have affected partisan control of the U.S. House in the 116th Congress. Heading into the election, the Republican Party was in the majority holding 235 seats to Democrats' 193 seats, with seven vacant seats. Democrats needed to win 23 GOP-held seats in 2018 to win control of the House. From 1918 to 2016, the president’s party lost an average of 29 seats in midterm elections.
Although Curbelo won re-election in 2016 by 12 points, the district had gone blue in previous presidential elections, backing Barack Obama (D) in 2012 by a margin of 8 points and Hillary Clinton (D) in 2016 by 16 points.
Politico listed the 26th Congressional District election as one of the top 10 House races to watch in 2018. Both the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and the National Republican Congressional Committee included the district in their lists of targets for 2018.
Florida's 26th Congressional District, Curbelo vs. Mucarsel-Powell
| Poll | Poll sponsor |  Curbelo |
 Mucarsel-Powell | Undecided/Other | Margin of error | Sample size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Times/Siena College October 19-24, 2018 | N/A | 44% | 45% | 11% | +/-4.9 | 499 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy October 3-9, 2018 | N/A | 46% | 45% | 9% | +/-4.0 | 625 |
| GBA Strategies September 27-October 1, 2018 | N/A | 50% | 48% | 2% | +/-4.4 | 500 |
| Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research September 23-27, 2018 | Mucarsel-Powell | 48% | 49% | 3% | +/-4.9 | 511 |
| Public Policy Polling September 17-19, 2018 | Protect Our Care | 44% | 45% | 11% | +/-4.3 | 511 |
| Siena College/New York Times September 13-16, 2018 | N/A | 47% | 45% | 8% | +/-5.0 | 385 |
| GBA Strategies July 16-22, 2018 | Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee | 41% | 48% | 11% | +/-4.4 | 500 |
| AVERAGES | 45.71% | 46.43% | 7.86% | +/-4.56 | 504.43 |
The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.
| Name | Party | Receipts* | Disbursements** | Cash on hand | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Curbelo | Republican Party | $5,178,885 | $5,132,356 | $89,898 | As of December 31, 2018 |
| Debbie Mucarsel-Powell | Democratic Party | $4,655,422 | $4,615,605 | $39,817 | As of December 31, 2018 |
|
Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2018.
* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee." |
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This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in Florida from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the Florida Department of State.
This chart shows the results of the presidential election in Florida every year from 2000 to 2016.
Election results (President of the United States), Florida 2000-2016
| Year | First-place candidate | First-place candidate votes (%) | Second-place candidate | Second-place candidate votes (%) | Margin of victory (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | Donald Trump |
49.0% | Hillary Clinton |
47.8% | 1.2% |
| 2012 | Barack Obama |
50.0% | Mitt Romney |
49.1% | 0.9% |
| 2008 | Barack Obama |
51.0% | John McCain |
48.2% | 2.8% |
| 2004 | George W. Bush |
52.10% | John Kerry |
47.09% | 5.01% |
| 2000 | George W. Bush |
48.847% | Al Gore |
48.838% | 0.009% |
This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in Florida from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.
Election results (U.S. Senator), Florida 2000-2016
| Year | First-place candidate | First-place candidate votes (%) | Second-place candidate | Second-place candidate votes (%) | Margin of victory (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | Marco Rubio |
52.0% | Patrick Murphy |
44.3% | 7.7% |
| 2012 | Bill Nelson |
55.2% | Connie Mack |
42.2% | 13.0% |
| 2010 | Marco Rubio |
48.9% |  Charlie Crist |
29.7% | 19.2% |
| 2006 | Bill Nelson |
60.3% | Katherine Harris |
38.1% | 22.2% |
| 2004 | Mel Martinez |
49.4% | Betty Castor |
48.3% | 1.1% |
| 2000 | Bill Nelson |
51.0% | Bill McCollum |
46.2% | 4.8% |
This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in Florida.
Election results (Governor/Lt. Governor), Florida 2000-2016
| Year | First-place candidate | First-place candidate votes (%) | Second-place candidate | Second-place candidate votes (%) | Margin of victory (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | Rick Scott/Carlos Lopez-Cantera |
48.1% | Charlie Crist/Annette Taddeo-Goldstein |
47.1% | 1% |
| 2010 | Rick Scott/Jennifer Carroll |
48.9% | Alex Sink/Rod Smith |
47.7% | 1.2% |
| 2006 | Charlie Crist/Jeff Kottkamp |
52.2% | Jim Davis/Daryl Jones |
45.1% | 7.1% |
| 2002 | Jeb Bush/Frank Brogan |
56.0% | Bill McBride/Tom Rossin |
43.2% | 12.8% |
This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent Florida in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.
Congressional delegation, Florida 2000-2016
| Year | Republicans | Republicans (%) | Democrats | Democrats (%) | Balance of power |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 17 |
62.9% | 10 |
37.0% | R+7 |
| 2014 | 17 |
62.9% | 10 |
37.0% | R+7 |
| 2012 | 17 |
62.9% | 10 |
37.0% | R+7 |
| 2010 | 19 |
76.0% | 6 |
24.0% | R+13 |
| 2008 | 15 |
60.0% | 10 |
40.0% | R+5 |
| 2006 | 16 |
64.0% | 9 |
36.0% | R+7 |
| 2004 | 18 |
66.7% | 7 |
33.3% | R+11 |
| 2002 | 17 |
66.7% | 8 |
33.3% | R+9 |
| 2000 | 15 |
57.9% | 8 |
42.1% | R+7 |
A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.
Florida Party Control: 1992-2019
One year of a Democratic trifecta • 20 years of Republican trifectas
| Year | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 00 | 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Governor | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | I | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R |
| Senate | D | S | S | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R |
| House | D | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R |
Demographic data for Florida
| Florida | U.S. | |
|---|---|---|
| Total population: | 20,244,914 | 316,515,021 |
| Land area (sq mi): | 53,625 | 3,531,905 |
| Gender | ||
| Female: | 51.1% | 50.8% |
| Race and ethnicity** | ||
| White: | 76% | 73.6% |
| Black/African American: | 16.1% | 12.6% |
| Asian: | 2.6% | 5.1% |
| Native American: | 0.3% | 0.8% |
| Pacific Islander: | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| Two or more: | 2.4% | 3% |
| Hispanic/Latino: | 23.7% | 17.1% |
| Education | ||
| High school graduation rate: | 86.9% | 86.7% |
| College graduation rate: | 27.3% | 29.8% |
| Income | ||
| Median household income: | $47,507 | $53,889 |
| Persons below poverty level: | 19.8% | 11.3% |
| Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015) for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Florida. | ||
As of July 2017, Florida's three largest cities were Jacksonville (pop. est. 860,000), Miami (pop. est. 430,000), and Tampa (pop. est. 360,000).
