Incumbent Doug Ducey (R) defeated professor David Garcia (D) and Angel Torres (G) in the general election on November 6, 2018, for governor of Arizona.
Ducey was first elected in 2014 by a margin of 12 percentage points. Of the ten preceding gubernatorial elections, a Republican candidate won six—including Ducey's victory in 2014—and a Democratic candidate won four. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) carried the state by a margin of 4 percentage points. As of November 2018, three race rating outlets rated the race Likely Republican.
Ducey's victory preserved the state's Republican trifecta. At the time of the 2018 election, Arizona had been a Republican trifecta since Gov. Jan Brewer (R) took office in 2009.
Arizona was one of 36 states that held an election for governor in 2018. Democrats gained seven previously Republican-held seats, and Republicans gained one previously independent-held seat. Heading into the 2018 elections, there were 16 Democratic governors, 33 Republican governors, and one independent governor. In 2018, 26 of the 33 states with a Republican governor held a gubernatorial election, while nine out of the 16 states with a Democratic governor held a gubernatorial election. Seventeen of the 36 seats up for election were open seats (four Democratic, 12 Republican, and one independent), meaning that the sitting governor was not seeking re-election.
Governor of Arizona, 2018
Poll | Poll sponsor | Garcia (D) | Ducey (R) | Undecided/Other | Margin of Error | Sample Size |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SSRS (October 24-29, 2018) | CNN | 45% | 52% | 2% | +/-4.4 | 702 |
Anderson Robbins Research and Shaw & Company Research (October 27-29, 2018) | Fox News | 37% | 55% | 7% | +/-3.5 | 643 |
HighGround (October 26-28, 2018) | N/A | 35% | 55% | 10% | +/-4.9 | 400 |
Marist College (October 23-27, 2018) | NBC News | 42% | 55% | 2% | +/-5.4 | 506 |
YouGov (October 23-26, 2018) | CBS News | 41% | 52% | 7% | +/-4.1 | 972 |
Governor of Arizona, 2018
Poll | Poll sponsor | Garcia (D) | Ducey (R) | Undecided/Other | Margin of Error | Sample Size |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OH Predictive Insights (October 22-23, 2018) | ABC 15 Arizona | 39% | 57% | 4% | +/-4.0 | 600 |
Change Research (October 9-10, 2018) | The Garcia campaign | 40% | 47% | 13% | +/--- | 783 |
OH Predictive Insights (October 3, 2018) | Arizona Capitol Times | 37% | 54% | 9% | +/-4.0 | 600 |
Anderson Robbins Research and Shaw & Company Research (September 29-October 2, 2018) | Fox News | 37% | 55% | 8% | +/-3.5 | 716 |
Data Orbital (October 1-3, 2018) | N/A | 34% | 52% | 14% | +/-4.2 | 550 |
Suffolk University (September 27-30, 2018) | The Arizona Republic | 38% | 50% | 12% | +/-4.4 | 500 |
Marist College (September 16-20, 2018) | NBC News | 43% | 51% | 5% | +/-4.7 | 564 |
SSRS (September 11-15, 2018) | CNN | 45% | 48% | 8% | +/-4.3 | 761 |
Arizona State University (September 10-25, 2018) | N/A | 40% | 45% | 15% | +/-3.5 | 775 |
TargetSmart (September 9-13, 2018) | Progress Now Arizona | 48% | 49% | 3% | +/-4.0 | 600 |
Anderson Robbins Research and Shaw & Company Research (September 8-11, 2018) | Fox News | 40% | 51% | 9% | +/-3.5 | 710 |
Gravis Marketing (September 5-7, 2018) | N/A | 44% | 48% | 9% | +/-3.3 | 882 |
Data Orbital (September 4-6, 2018) | N/A | 41% | 49% | 10% | +/-4.2 | 550 |
Public Policy Polling (August 30-31, 2018) | The Garcia campaign | 43% | 44% | 13% | +/-4.2 | 554 |
The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage. Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.
Race ratings: Arizona gubernatorial election, 2018
Race tracker | Race ratings | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
November 5, 2018 | October 30, 2018 | October 23, 2018 | October 16, 2018 | |
The Cook Political Report | Likely Republican | Likely Republican | Likely Republican | Likely Republican |
Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales | Likely Republican | Likely Republican | Likely Republican | Likely Republican |
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball | Likely Republican | Likely Republican | Likely Republican | Likely Republican |
Governor of Arizona, 2014
Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Doug Ducey | 53.4% | 805,062 | |
Democratic | Fred DuVal | 41.6% | 626,921 | |
Libertarian | Barry J. Hess | 3.8% | 57,337 | |
Americans Elect | J.L. Mealer | 1% | 15,432 | |
Nonpartisan | Write-ins | 0.1% | 1,664 | |
Total Votes | 1,506,416 | |||
Election results via Arizona Secretary of State |
On November 2, 2010, Jan Brewer won re-election to the office of Governor of Arizona. She defeated Terry Goddard (D), Barry J. Hess (LBT), Larry Gist (Green) and various write-in challengers in the general election.
Governor of Arizona, 2010
Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Jan Brewer Incumbent | 54.3% | 938,934 | |
Democratic | Terry Goddard | 42.4% | 733,935 | |
Libertarian | Barry J. Hess | 2.2% | 38,722 | |
Green | Larry Gist | 0.9% | 16,128 | |
N/A | Write-ins | 0.1% | 2,017 | |
Total Votes | 1,729,736 | |||
Election results via Arizona Secretary of State. |
On November 7, 2006, Janet Napolitano won re-election to the office of Governor of Arizona. He defeated Len Munsil (R), Barry J. Hess (LBT) and various write-in challengers in the general election.
Governor of Arizona, 2006
Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Janet Napolitano Incumbent | 62.6% | 959,830 | |
Republican | Len Munsil | 35.4% | 543,528 | |
Libertarian | Barry J. Hess | 2% | 30,268 | |
N/A | Write-ins | 0% | 19 | |
Total Votes | 1,533,645 | |||
Election results via Arizona Secretary of State. |
On November 5, 2002, Janet Napolitano won election to the office of Governor of Arizona. He defeated Matt Salmon (R), Barry Hess (LBT), Richard Mahoney (I), and various write-in challengers in the general election.
Governor of Arizona, 2002
Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Janet Napolitano | 46.6% | 566,284 | |
Republican | Matt Salmon | 44.8% | 544,465 | |
Libertarian | Barry Hess | 7% | 84,947 | |
Independent | Richard Mahoney | 1.7% | 20,356 | |
N/A | Write-ins | 0% | 59 | |
Total Votes | 1,216,111 | |||
Election results via Arizona Secretary of State. |
Demographic data for Arizona
Arizona | U.S. | |
---|---|---|
Total population: | 6,817,565 | 316,515,021 |
Land area (sq mi): | 113,594 | 3,531,905 |
Gender | ||
Female: | 50.3% | 50.8% |
Race and ethnicity** | ||
White: | 78.4% | 73.6% |
Black/African American: | 4.2% | 12.6% |
Asian: | 3% | 5.1% |
Native American: | 4.4% | 0.8% |
Pacific Islander: | 0.2% | 0.2% |
Two or more: | 3.2% | 3% |
Hispanic/Latino: | 30.3% | 17.1% |
Education | ||
High school graduation rate: | 86% | 86.7% |
College graduation rate: | 27.5% | 29.8% |
Income | ||
Median household income: | $50,255 | $53,889 |
Persons below poverty level: | 21.2% | 11.3% |
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015) for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Arizona. |
As of July 2016, Arizona's three largest cities were Phoenix (pop. est. 1,626,078), Tucson (pop. est. 535,677), and Mesa (pop. est. 496,401).