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2024 Presidential Elections
November 5, 2024

2020 2028

Chance of winning each state

The Economist’s model combines the national prediction with polls and political-economic factors at the state level. We take into account that states that are similar are likely to move with each other; if Donald Trump wins Minnesota, he will probably win Wisconsin too.

AK 3 HI 4 WA 12 OR 7 CA 55 NV 6 UT 6 NM 5 ID 4 MT 3 WY 3 CO 9 AZ 11 TX 38 OK 7 KS 6 NE 5 SD 3 ND 7 MN 10 WI 10 IL 20 IA 6 MO 10 AR 6 LA 8 MS 6 AL 9 GA 16 FL 29 SC 9 NC 15 TN 11 KY 8 IN 11 MI 16 OH 18 WV 5 VA 13 PA 20 NY 29 ME 4 NH 4 VT 3 MA 11 RI 4 CT 7 NJ 14 DE 3 MD 10
State District
1 2 3
ME
2
1
1
NE
2
1
1
1

Modelled popular vote on each day